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Is New Zealand set to raise interest rates on Wednesday?


So. Starting with Monday the 10th of March. The trading week gets underway with an early release from Europe. At 7:45 am we have access to French industrial production figures. This data has tended to come in below forecast in recent months, and a repeat on Monday could lead to a tradable PUT opportunity on France’s benchmark CAC share index. 


Onto Tuesday and another early release, this time from Canberra. That’s the National Australia Bank’s business confidence report scheduled for release at 12:30 am. Then it’s over to London for U.K. manufacturing production figures at 9:30, followed at 10 by Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s inflation report hearing with the U.K. parliament’s treasury committee. Sterling’s strong showing in Q4 2013 and the first quarter of this year was backed by solid evidence of a recovery in the U.K. economy, and binary options investors should pay close attention to Carney’s testimony on Tuesday for clues about future interest rate decisions.


On Wednesday all the key events come from Auckland, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s official cash rate at 8am, with a rate statement and press conference to follow. New Zealand’s GDP showed aggressive growth last quarter, and a rise in the cash rate could prove necessary to prevent the New Zealand economy from overheating. Banc De Binary analysts are predicting a quarter-of-a-percent rise from 2.5% to 2.75%, which could open up another PUT opportunity, this time on AUD/NZD. 


Thursday now. A short but potentially profitable trading day starts and finishes in the U.S. at 12:30pm, with the release of weekly unemployment claims figures and core retail sales data for February. The U.S. labor market has stagnated in recent months, resulting, naturally, in less consumer spending, so investors should be alert to more negative U.S. data opening up an opportunity to CALL the euro-dollar after lunch.


And so to Friday, and another day dominated by U.S. data. At 12:30 in the afternoon we have February’s producer price index. Banc De Binary’s analysts are not expecting a change from January’s 0.2%, viewing the negative pressure usually applied by the recent spike in energy prices as being offset by other, more stable, measures of inflation.

Then at 1:55 we come to our final tradable event of the week - the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment report for March. U.S. consumer sentiment has remained generally resilient over the winter, but this resilience will be sorely tested if there is no significant improvement in the labor market over the coming months. 

Lauren Carmouche

Investment Analyst

Banc De Binary 

Monday, 10 Mar, 2014 / 7:03

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