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Important NZD Pairs: Technical Overview


Having reversed from 0.6675-70 horizontal support, the NZDUSD is now heading towards 0.7050-55 "Double-Top" marked in April – May ahead of the crucial RBNZ meeting, which also encompasses quarterly Monetary Policy Statement this time. If the New-Zealand central bank avoid being dovish, needless to say with no rate-cuts, the NZD can well surpass the 0.6675 and head towards the broader channel resistance level around 0.7100. Given the pair's further upside beyond 0.7100, the 61.8% FE of its September 2015 – April 2016 upside, near 0.7180-85 becomes its next landmark prior to surpassing the 0.8200 round figure. Alternatively, a worrisome tone from the central banker, coupled with the overbought RSI, might trigger its immediate decline to 0.6940 and then to 0.6885 and the 0.6850 support levels. Should the pair extends the correction below 0.6850, the 0.6800 and the 38.2% Fibo level of 0.6740 can act as intermediate supports prior to its re-testing the 0.6675-70 support, quickly followed by the 200-day SMA level of 0.6665.


The EURNZD presently trades at the support-line of five-month old symmetrical triangle, at 1.6220 now, breaking which it can quickly dip to 1.6110 – 1.6100 straight-line support. Given the bears drag pair prices below 1.6100 on a closing basis, chances of its plunge to 1.5990 and the 1.5870 can't be denied. If the RBNZ turn to be a disappointing event for the pair, 1.6330 and the 1.6420 are likely nearby resistances that the pair could witness during its pullback before challenging the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its August – December 2015 downside, near 1.6475. Further, pair's sustained trading above 1.6475 might find it hard to clear the 100-day SMA level of 1.6580, clearing which 1.6700 can offer an intermediate resistance during its northward trajectory to conquer the triangle resistance of 1.6840.


Following its reversal from eight-month old descending trend-line resistance, the GBPNZD currently aims to visit the 2.0620 – 2.0600 horizontal area. Should the pair maintains its current downside below 2.0600, the April month low of 2.0350 is likely restricting its further weakness, failing to which can drag the pair towards 610.8% FE of August 2015 – April 2016 decline, near 1.9970; though 2.0000 psychological magnet can offer important buffer point to traders. On the upside, a daily close above 2.0900 could help the pair surpass 2.1000 mark and head towards the 100-day SMA level of 2.1250. Should it successfully clears the 2.1250, 23.6% Fibo level of 2.1485, followed by the 2.1500, becomes important numbers to watch on the chart.


With a short-term ascending trend-channel aptly describing near-term up-move of the NZDJPY, the pair managed to close above 50-day SMA for the first time in more than a month on Tuesday and is presently confronting with 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2015 – May 2016 decline, near 75.093. Should the tackles the mentioned immediate resistance, it can quickly aim for 100-day SMA, at 75.50; however channel resistance-line of 75.75 could hold its further upside captive. If the pair fails to respect 75.75, the 76.00 round figure may provide intermediate resistance during its rally to 76.80 resistance level. Meanwhile, 74.620 and the 74.20 can limit the pair's immediate downside, clearing which the channel support of 73.90 becomes important to watch, which if broken can drag the pair to 73.30 and then to 73.00. Should the pair maintains its south-run below 73.00, it can plunge below May lows of 72.50 and can visit the 72.00 mark.

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Wednesday, 08 Jun, 2016 / 3:59

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