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Important JPY Pairs: Technical Overview


During its gradual declines from 107.50, the USDJPY tested a month's low on Tuesday; however, overbought RSI triggered the pair's pullback on Wednesday which presently confronts with 101.40 resistance mark. Given the pair manage to clear the 101.40, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – June downside, coupled with short-term ascending trend-line, at 101.80, and the 102.50 are likely upside levels that it could witness during further advances. If at all the pair extends the north-run beyond 102.50, the 103.30 and the 104.00 might please the Bulls. On the contrary, a dip below the recent low of 100.75 needs to confront with 100.60-20 broad support-region, which if broken can quickly drag the prices to Brexit day lows of 98.80. Should the pair continue trading down below 98.80, 61.8% FE of the said move, around 97.50, becomes an important support to observe.


Even if the EURJPY's failure to clear 50-day SMA during late-July fetched the prices to three-week lows, the pair couldn't clear an immediate ascending trend-line support on a closing basis and is now struggles around 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – June slide. Though, relative strength of the JPY and absence of any major EU releases, coupled with lower high formation, can continue signaling the pair's revisit to 112.50 on the closing below 113.00. During its additional downside below 112.50, the 111.85 and the 110.80 can offer intermediate halts before the pair plunges to June lows of 109.35. However, pair's closing above 113.80 Fibo mark can trigger its short-covering rally till 114.80-85, breaking which 116.20 and 117.00 can act as buffer prior to flashing 50-day SMA level of 117.25 on the chart. If the pair closes beyond 117.25, it becomes capable enough to challenge the 118.50 resistance mark.


CADJPY's bounce from 76.70 horizontal support favors fair chances of its pullback to 77.70 and then to 78.00 resistances. Should the pair manage to clear 78.00, the 79.30 and the 80.00 psychological magnet are following upside numbers that might restrict its additional advance. Further, pair's capacity to surpass 80.00 needs to win over 80.90 – 81.00 resistance-zone, including 50-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of April-June decline, in order to print 82.00 on the chart. Meanwhile, a daily close below 76.70 can be harsh on pair Bulls by showing 76.00 and the 61.8% FE level of 74.65 while its additional decline beneath 74.65 might drag the prices to 73.50 and the 72.20 supports.


With short-term descending trend-channel indicating NZDJPY south-run, the pair seems eager to visit 72.30-20 support-zone, including 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of June plunge and channel lower-line. Though, the mentioned support-zone, coupled with oversold RSI, might trigger the pair's bounce to 73.10-15 immediate resistance, breaking which 50% Fibo level of 73.35 and 73.80 resistances might follow the suit. Given the pair continue trading beyond 73.80, the channel resistance and 61.8% Fibo level area, around 74.30-35, could restrict its additional upside, failing to which can mark 74.80 and 75.00 quotes. Alternatively, pair's dip below 72.20 can have 72.00 as small pass-by support before it could revisit the 71.20-25 horizontal-zone. Should the pair bears chooses to break 71.20 support, the 70.65 and the June lows around 69.00 can comeback.

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Thursday, 04 Aug, 2016 / 1:05

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