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Important CHF Pairs: Technical Overview


Ever since the USDCHF bounced-off from 0.9650, a short-term ascending trend-channel continue portraying the pair's upside momentum; however, its inability to surpass 0.9815-20 resistance-zone seems presently dragging the pair to 0.9740 and the channel lower-line of 0.9730. In case the pair declines further below 0.9730, a month-old ascending trend-line support around 0.9710 could keep its strength intact, which if broken may trigger its south-run to 0.9660 and then to 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its July – August dip, near 0.9635. Meanwhile, pair's clear break above 0.9820 would find the channel resistance of 0.9840 and the broader TL mark of 0.9850 as consecutive upside levels to surpass before it can aim for 0.9880. Given the pair successfully clears 0.9880, the 0.9900 round figure may offer a buffer during the pair's rally towards July highs of 0.9950.


Following its failure to surpass four-month old descending TL resistance, the EURCHF now broke 1.0895 – 1.0900 support-confluence, comprising 50-day SMA and an upward slanting trend-line stretched since late-June. If the pair register a daily closing below 1.0895, it becomes liable to test 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of February – June decline, near 1.0840 ahead of targeting 1.0800 round figure support. Should the pair continue on its south-run below 1.0800, it can dip to 1.0785 and the 1.0715 downside numbers before favoring the chances to see June lows of 1.0620. Though, pair's closing above 1.0900 can keep indicating its run-up to 1.0920 and the 1.0960; however, previously mentioned TL mark, also including 61.8% Fibo, around 1.0975-80, could restrict the pair's additional advances beyond 1.0960. Given the pair surpasses 1.0980, the 1.1020 and the broader trend-line resistance of 1.1050 are likely following levels to watch.


A short-term descending trend-channel has been efficiently depicting the GBPCHF's downturn since early-September. The pair now rests around channel support of 1.2645, indicating brighter chances of the pullback towards 1.2720 and the 1.2800; however, channel resistance and the 50-day SMA mark of 1.2840 becomes an important level to limit its further upside. Should the pair clears 1.2840, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its June – August decline, at 1.2920, and the 1.3000 psychological magnet are likely follow-on levels to observe before the three-month old descending TL mark of 1.3040 comes into play. Alternatively, pair's break of 1.2645 channel support could print 1.2570 and the 1.2500 prior to dragging the quotes to August lows around 1.2450. If the pair fails to respect 1.2450, it becomes vulnerable enough to print 1.2330 and the 2015 lows of 1.1865 on the chart.


Even if the rising trend-line favors AUDCHF up-move, a month-old downward slanting TL mark of 0.7460 can limit the pair's week old north-run. If the present strength of Bulls drive the quote beyond 0.7460, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its August surge, at 0.7490, and the 0.7520 can offer intermediate halts before it could challenge the important 0.7550-55 horizontal mark. In case the pair manages to surpass 0.7555, also clears the August highs of 0.7570, its quick run-up to 0.7600 and then an up-move towards 0.7670 can't be denied. On the downside, 0.7400 – 0.7395 area, comprising aforementioned TL support, becomes immediate important support for the pair, breaking which it could drop to 0.7375 and to 0.7350. Given the pair continue its southwards trajectory below 0.7350, it becomes weaker enough to re-print 0.7300 and the 0.7270 support levels.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

Thursday, 22 Sep, 2016 / 2:11

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