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Important CHF Pairs: Technical Check


USDCHF's reversal from 0.9800 mark failed to dip below two months old descending trend-line support, triggering the pair's present up-move towards 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of January – April downside, around 0.9680. However, a downward slanting trend-line, connecting highs marked in January, March and April, at 0.9735 now, might hold its further upside captive, failing to which can further propel the pair towards 0.9790 – 0.9800 resistance-region, including 38.2% Fibo. If the pair continue trading above 0.9800, chances of its quick run-up to 0.9900 can't be denied. On the downside, 0.9580 offers immediate support to the pair, breaking which 0.9530 and the April lows around 0.9500 mark, are likely consecutive supports for the pair to witness. Should bears fetch the pair prices below 0.9500, 0.9430-25 area, comprising mentioned trend-line support and the 61.8% FE of its March – April downturn, is an important level, clearing which the pair becomes vulnerable to revisit the 0.9380 and the 0.9345-40 support levels.


Unlike USDCHF, which clearly signals further up-move, the EURCHF is presently struggling to clear the 1.1015-25 horizontal resistance-zone, breaking which it can negate the recent sideways pattern by rallying towards the 1.1060 resistance level. Given the pair's sustained up-move beyond 1.1060, the 1.1100 and the 1.1140 are likely small barriers that it needs to clear prior to targeting the February highs around 1.1200. Alternatively, 1.0990, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2015 – February 2016 upside, near 1.0975, and the 1.0950 horizontal support, could limit the pair's near-term decline. If the pair drops below 1.0950, 61.8% Fibo level of 1.0920 and the 1.0890 may become following rests while pair's further decline below 1.0890 could find it hard to break the six month old ascending trend-line support of 1.0860.


GBPCHF's reversal from 100-day SMA failed to dip below 50-day SMA and is presently fueling the pair towards 1.4000 psychological magnet. If the pair closes above 1.4000, the 1.4030 can offer a buffer resistance before it could revisit the 100-day SMA level of 1.4170. However, pair's closing break of 1.4170 enables it to surpass the 1.4300 mark and rest around 1.4315-20 area. Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA level of 1.3895 holds the pair's immediate downside limited, breaking which 1.3810 and the 1.3720 horizontal mark becomes next levels during the pair's further downturn. Moreover, pair's extended south-run below 1.3720 can result 1.3600 mark on the chart, which if broken can recall the April lows of 1.3415.


Even if negative AU inflation and RBA's rate-cut gave 300 pips of drop to AUDCHF, the pair failed to clear the 200-day SMA support level and is presently aiming towards 0.7270-75 resistance-area. Should the pair stretches its corrective recovery beyond 0.7275, the 0.7330 and the 0.7350 mark, including 50-day SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its August 2015 – April 2016 upside, are likely resistances that it could witness. Although, pair's closing break below 0.7135, encompassing the 200-day SMA, might renew its downside pressure towards 50% Fibo level of 0.7065 and then to 0.7000 round figure mark. If at all bears gain control over the prices below 0.7000, chances of its plunge towards sun-0.6900 becomes brighter.

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Friday, 06 May, 2016 / 3:36

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