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Important AUD Pairs: Technical Update


Although Australian Employment Change printed better than forecast number, the AUD failed to portray the welcome news on chart as market players analyzed the cause being only the part-time workers and focused more on Chinese pessimism. The same in-turn weaken the AUDUSD towards testing a fortnight old trend-line support, at 0.7350, which if broken can quickly drag the pair to 0.7300 – 0.7295 horizontal support. Given the pair further dips below 0.7295, the 0.7250 and the 0.7200 round figure mark might act as intermediate rest before it could revisit the May month lows of 0.7145. Should the pair bounces back from the current levels, 0.7385 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – May downside, at 0.7400, can provide nearby resistances, breaking which a short-term descending trend-line, around 0.7440, is likely a level to watch for the pair traders. If the pair manage to clear the 0.7440, chances of its advance to 0.7515 and the 61.8% Fibo level of 0.7570 can't be denied.


Having reversed from 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – May upside, the EURAUD again aims to visit the month-old descending trend-channel support, at 1.5120 now; though, 38.2% Fibo level of 1.5180 might offer an immediate support. If the pair negates the channel formation by breaking 1.5120, the 1.5100 and the 1.5080 are likely following supports it could rest at before going down to 1.4950. Meanwhile, 1.5310 and the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.5360 may hold its nearby up-moves captive while further run-up beyond 1.5360 can plot 1.5400 and the channel resistance mark of 1.5440 on the chart. Further, pair's capacity to clear the descending trend-channel enables it to witness 1.5545-50 and the 1.5600 round figure resistances.


Even if the GBPAUD failed to clear the 1.9030-20 horizontal support, the pair's upside might be restricted by the 50-day & 100-day SMA confluence around 1.9400 round figure. Should the pair successfully clears 1.9400, the 1.9550 and the 1.9660-70 can pose as barriers during its upside break towards 1.9745-50. Alternatively, 1.9100 and the 1.9030-20, followed by the 1.9000 psychological magnet, can hold the pair's short-term downside captive. Given the pair drops below 1.9000, the 1.8800 and 1.8590 may hold the doors for its April low re-test, around 1.8290.


With the BoJ's inaction, the JPY secured across the board strength and AUDJPY, being no exception plunged to four year's low; however, failure to sustain the plunge, coupled with oversold RSI, indicates brighter chances of the pair's bounce towards 77.50 immediate resistance, comprising recent lows, also marked in February. Given the pair stretches the short-covering beyond 77.50, the 78.30 and the 79.00 may act as buffer resistances prior to visiting the 80.00 mark. On the downside, continuation of southward trajectory can further drag the pair to 75.00 and the 61.8% FE of May 2015 – February 2016 downside, near 74.50, adjacent to the downward slanting trend-line support of 74.30. If at all the pair fails to reverse from 74.30, it becomes vulnerable to test 2011 lows around 72.00.

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Friday, 17 Jun, 2016 / 3:38

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