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The euro finished Wednesday’s trading up. The monthly candle closed doji at 1.1157 against 1.1167 in July. The body of the candle was 10 points. The euro spent the day under pressure whilst the euro/pound hadn’t started correcting. By trade close in Europe, the euro/dollar had restored to 1.1165.
Job creation in the US private sector for August was 177k against a forecasted 175k. The previous value was reassessed up by 15k to 194k. As I said earlier, there isn’t a positive correlation between the ADP and NFP, so any time the values coincide, the market ignores the data.
Market expectations:
At the time this analysis was written, the euro/dollar was trading at around 1.1153. The euro is pushing off from 1.1123 after a triple bear divergence. The minimum target after the saw-like pattern is 1.1207. Since the price on the hourly period is balanced, before the payrolls, I expect to see a growth to 1.1176. Higher than this is unlikely, since traders stray away from opening new positions before important events.
Day’s News (GMT+3):
- 10:15, Swiss July retail sales data;
- 10:30, Swiss index for business activity in the manufacturing sector for August.
- 10:55, German definitive business activity index for manufacturing in August,
- 11:00, Eurozone definitive business activity index for manufacturing in August,
- 11:30, UK definitive business activity index for manufacturing in August,
- 14:30, US redundancies in August from Challenger,
- 15:30, US unemployment benefit requests for week ending 27th August, reassessment of manufacturing in the non-farm sector during Q2 of 2016, reassessed labour force price for Q2 of 2016,
- 16:30, Canadian index for business activity in manufacturing for August from RBC,
- 16:45, US definitive index for business activity in manufacturing for August.
- 17:00, US index for business activity in manufacturing from the ISM for August, expenditure on construction for July and PMI from the ISM for August.
Technical Analysis:
Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1145, maximum: 1.1176, close: 1.1165.
Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView
The euro has updated its minimum for three days in a row under pressure from the falling euro/pound. As a result, a saw-like pattern and triple bear divergence between the price and the AO indicator has formed.
The euro bulls broke the upper limit of the channel and the price is now at the LB. Taking the formation of a hammer on the daily into account, I expect to see the euro to restore to 1.1176 (45 degrees) today. If the cross will be on the buyers’ side, then it will reach 1.12.