GBPCHF after bouncing sharply from the 1.50 support area seems to be struggling around 1.5200 which might take the pair lower moving ahead.
Technical Analysis
There is a critical bearish trend line formed on the 4 hour chart of the GBPCHF pair, which is also coinciding with the 100, 200 and 50 simple moving averages (SMA). Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.5359 high to 1.4999 low is also sitting around the same area. So, there is a monster resistance formed around the 1.5180-1.5200 area, which might protect the upside in the pair. The pair is clearly struggling around the mentioned area and currently consolidating in a tiny range. We need to see how the pair trades in the coming sessions, as a failure to break higher could ignite a downside reaction in the near term. There is a major release lined up in the UK today as the retail sales report will be published. It might spark moves in GBPCHF, and it would be interesting to see whether it can break higher or not. A break above the confluence area could set the pair for a move towards the 1.5300 handle.
On the downside, initial support is around the 1.5100 area. Any further losses might take the pair towards the 1.5040-20 swing support area.
UK Retail Sales
Later during the London session, the UK Retail Sales report will be released by the National Statistics. The forecast is slated to register a gain of 0.3% in November 2014, compared with the preceding month gain of 0.8%. Any lower than expected reading might put further pressure on the GBPCHF pair.