GBPAUD, Weekly
Sterling has been trending higher against Australian dollar since August last year. In February GBPAUD hit a historical resistance at 1.9697 and it has taken the pair close to four months to move back above this resistance level. AUDGBP is now trading at Bollinger bands while Stochastics are overbought. There is a small cluster of Fibonacci extension levels just above the Bollinger bands between 2.0160 and 2.0313 and a historical resistance at 2.0991. Momentum has slowed down but the trend is still up.
GBPAUD, Daily
A week ago GBPAUD hit a resistance at February high at 2.0029. This caused the price to break out from a bearish wedge. Since then the pair has found support at 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.9656 and rallied back to levels it dropped from. This looks like a classic return move that should be followed by a move lower. The nearest potential support level is in the region of 1.9408 to 1.94823 where 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, lower Bollinger bands and 50 SMA coincide. The next support area is between 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci levels while the nearest daily resistance is at 2.0057.
GBPAUD, 240 min
GBPAUD has moved inside the sideways range it formed last week. The pair is approaching the upper Bollinger bands but apart from Stochastics being overbought and slightly tilting to the right there are no signs of momentum slowdown yet in this timeframe as the latest bar closed near its high and the current bar is pushing into 1.5 stdv Bollinger Band. Even though price is close to very potential resistance levels I would like to see some price based evidence that the buyers have exhausted their resources before committing to the short side. The nearest 4h support is at a Fibonacci cluster above 1.9600. Nearest 4h resistance levels above 1.9907 are at 1.9998 and 2.0042.
Conclusion
Even though there has been some momentum slowdown the weekly trend is still higher. The historical resistance at 2.0991 is a logical target price in the weekly time frame. The daily timeframe has some weakness (price has broken out of a bearish wedge) and this suggests that the above resistance could still prove to be a problem for the bulls. If market corrects from this resistance it could however be a short term move as support is not that far and the weekly trend is pretty firmly to the upside. Look for support between 1.9600 and 1.9700 with a long term target at 2.0870 and medium term target at 2.0270. Short term and intraday traders could consider 2.0000 as a target.
Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
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