Technical analysis and trading recommendations - https://fxpcm.com/en/fx/gbpusd-background-june-referendum-prospects-29042016
A referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union is scheduled for June 23 and the opinion of the British on this issue are divided.
As stated on Wednesday the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), in the case of the EU the UK economy in 2020 may be 3% less than it would be in the case if the country remains in the EU. On Wednesday, the head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that if the UK population will vote for the country's withdrawal from the EU, the pound may lose 20% of its value, while the annual inflation rate could add 1.5 percentage points.
According to the presented today by research company GfK data, the index of consumer confidence in the UK in April fell to a negative value (-3), the lowest since the end of 2014. On consumer confidence negatively influenced by prospects of a June referendum and the debate about the country's future in the European Union.
According to GfK, a decrease of the index contributed to the deterioration of the British assessment of the general economic situation in the country and the personal economic prospects. Also, it is promoted by concerns about immigration, terrorism and health.
On Wednesday, it was also presented preliminary data on GDP. In the 1st quarter compared to the last quarter of last year, UK GDP rose by 0.4% after rising 0.6% in the 4th quarter of 2015. In annual terms, growth in the 1st quarter amounted to 2.1% against 2.1% in the previous quarter.
Based on published preliminary data, in the 1st quarter of the UK economy lost momentum, and slowing its growth will continue in the background of preparations for the referendum.
However, the GBP / USD pair has been growing for the third consecutive week. This week the pair GBP / USD has been supported by the Fed's decision on interest rates in the US, as well as the Fed's uncertain position on the rate increase in June.
However, the achieved levels close to the level of 1.4625 may be insurmountable for the further growth of the pair in the run-up to the referendum. And given the weak macro-economic indicators that have come from the UK this week, GBP / USD pair may return to levels close to 1.4100 marks, 1.4000 by the beginning of June.