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GBP/USD: near the level of 1.4300 _12/04/2016

Technical analysis and trading recommendations -


Thursday 11:00 (GMT) will be published on the Bank of England interest rate decision and the minutes of the meeting of the bank. Most likely, the rate will remain unchanged at 0.5%.
Today, against the background of published positive inflation data is likely to further strengthen the pair GBP / USD, but talk about a significant increase above the level of 1.4300 in anticipation of the meeting of the Bank of England also is not necessary. Pound, however, will be supported in decreasing cross-pair EUR / GBP.
According to the presented today the National Statistics Office data, the Retail Price Index (the RPI), the UK rose 0.4% in March (vs. 0.3%), yoy growth amounted to + 1.6% (vs. 1.4 %). Consumer Price Index Core (Core CPI) in March, Great Britain 0.5% (forecast + 0.4%), YoY + 1.5% (forecast 1.3%). The inflation data came out better than expected and supported the pound, which rose in the GBP / USD pair in one hour more than 50 points. As noted by the Bureau of Statistics, inflation accelerated because of a rise in prices for clothing and footwear, as well as due to a small reduction in transport costs. Nevertheless, the growth of inflation rates is small, near zero values that can not affect the decision of the Bank of England in the possibility of raising interest rates. Uncertainty in connection with the referendum on the UK's membership of the EU, as well as other weak macroeconomic indicators (such as weak GDP growth in the last two quarters of last year, + 0.5% and + 1.9% for the year) is unlikely to give the Bank of England base plan tightening of monetary policy in the coming months. Expect the first interest rate increase in the country, and thus stable growth value of the pound, it is possible not earlier than mid-2017, provided that inflation at that time exceeds the number of the target level of 2%. In its latest quarterly report, the inflation the Bank of England lowered its growth forecast for the UK economy in the years 2016 and 2017 (to 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively).

Tuesday, 12 Apr, 2016 / 12:45

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