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Forex trading plan for Feb. 5

EUR/USD has spiked above 1.1500 on Tuesday, but was capped by 100-period MA at H4. The rally has slowed down despite the upbeat euro zone’s PMIs, retail sales and weaker-than-expected US NFP by ADP, all released on Wednesday. According to our forecast, the downtrend in EUR/USD will soon resume. Decline below 1.1440 will bring euro down to 1.1355. Next support is at 1.1275 and 1.1210. Watch the German factory orders and the EU economic forecasts on Thursday. News from Greece will also impact the market. US are scheduled to release trade balance and unemployment claims tomorrow.

GBP/USD was boosted to the levels above 1.5200 by the better-than-expected UK services PMI (57.2 vs. 56.5). However, pound approached the downtrend resistance line just below 1.5300. Tomorrow traders will be focused on the Bank of England’s meeting at 12:00 GMT. No changes in policy are expected. A break above 1.5300 can trigger an increase to 1.5475. USD/JPY may continue being sold on the upside in the area between 117.90 and 118.30 and bought on the downside in the 117.00 area.

NZD/USD pushed higher on Wednesday, supported by the neutral RBNZ stance and higher-than-expected milk prices. However, the pair faced resistance at $0.7450 (38.2% Fibo) and returned below the $0.7390 support later in the day. AUD/USD has also recovered some ground, retracing most of the post-RBA losses. The pair is facing resistance at 0.7850 and is vulnerable for a return to 0.7700. Next resistance is at 0.8000. Watch the Australian retail sales release at 00:30 GMT. USD/CAD can weaken to 1.2300. Resistance is at 1.2500 and 1.2625. EUR/GBP will be a sell in case of the break below 0.7500.

Wednesday, 04 Feb, 2015 / 3:02

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