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Forex Forecast for 28 September - 2 October 2015

Let’s review last week’s forecast:
- the EUR/USD pair entered a sideways trend after breaking through support around 1.1280 and turning it into resistance;
- contrary to all the predictions, the GBP/USD pair went down sharply, returning to the lows of the beginning of June and the beginning of September. Therefore, if there even was a sideways trend, it was in a very large range of 1.5175-1.5815;
- the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled 100%. The pair spent the whole week in a sideways trend in the precisely set boundaries of 119.00-121.00;
- the USD/CHF pair was also predicted a sideways trend by 82% of the analysts but experience has it that the opinion of the majority isn’t always correct. So, this time it’s 18% of the analysts who were right insisting that the pair would move up and transition to 0.9675-0.9775. The pair tried to break even higher but finished the week near the upper boundary of the indicated range.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on most different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- regarding EUR/USD, 72% of the experts and indicators on D1 predict a fall to 1.1000. Alternatively, 28% of the analysts and indicators on H4 insist that the pair will return to resistance at 1.1450. As for graphical analysis, in the short term, it predicts a fall to support at 1.1120 followed by a return to resistance at 1.1210;
- all the indicators point to a downward movement for GBP/USD. The analysts differ – only 20% of them agree with the indicators and believe that the fall will continue to at least 1.5000 while 80% of the analysts are certain that the pair has already reached its low and should now rebound towards resistance at 1.5340. Graphical analysis also shows that GBP/USD will remain in a sideways trend for some time, fluctuating between 1.5150 and 1.5340;
- most experts and indicators on H4 predict that USD/JPY will move upwards to 123.00. In this case, support will be at 121.30. However, according to 12% of the analysts and indicators on D1, the pair will lean on support at 119.00 and continue its four-week sideways trend. The next support in this case will be 118.50;
- the majority of both analysts (63%) and indicators believe that USD/CHF has resumed its movement to the 1.0000 landmark. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this and specifies that fluctuations will be in a 0.9670-1.0100 range. An alternative view is that the pair will take a breather and stay in a sideways trend within a 0.9740-0.9840 range.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Monday, 28 Sep, 2015 / 9:29

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