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EURUSD, GBPUSD And USDJPY: Technical Outlook


Even as the EURUSD's gradual recovery from 1.0855-50 support-zone helped the pair to test nearly a month's high, 1.1120-25 resistance confluence, comprising 50-day SMA and horizontal-line, confined its up-moves on Thursday. The pair seems witnessing a pullback ahead of NFP and upbeat prints of headline job details might drag the quote toward 1.1055-60 and then to 1.1000 supports. In case of highly optimist data-points fetching the pair prices below 1.1000, 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2015 – May 2016 advances, at 1.0940, can act as an intermediate halt prior to flashing 1.0855-50 on the chart. On the upside, disappointment from labor market figures can trigger the pair's rally towards breaking 1.1125 and test 1.1150 resistance; however, its further north-run may find it difficult to surpass a broader TL mark of 1.1185 and the 38.2% Fibo level of 1.1200. Should the pair continue rising beyond 1.1200, it becomes capable enough to challenge 1.1265 and the 1.1310 resistance-levels.


Unlike EURUSD, which is yet to clear the resistance-confluence, the GBPUSD has already broke a downward slanting trend-line stretched since June and is indicating further advances to 1.2600 prior to aiming 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its June – October dip, at 1.2670. Given the pair's successful trading above 1.2670, the 1.2865-70 horizontal-resistance-line comes into play, which if broken enables the pair to challenge 100-day SMA level of 1.3010. Meanwhile, pair's decline below resistance-turned-support-line of 1.2330 can once-again initiate its south-run towards 1.2240 and the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.2110. In case if the pair drops below 1.2110 on a daily closing basis, also clear 1.2080 support, chances of its plunge towards 1.1800 can't be denied.


Following its inability to surpass medium-term descending trend-line, the USDJPY now rests at 50-day and 100-day SMA confluence region of 102.85-80 and is indicating brighter chances of a pullback to 103.50 immediate resistance. During its extended recovery beyond 103.50, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of January – June decline, at 104.20, and the 104.70 might entertain intermediate buyers prior to fueling the pair towards previously mentioned TL mark of 105.25. Alternatively, pair's break of 102.80 can trigger its additional downside to 101.85 and to the 101.15 while an upward slanting TL support of 100.50 may limit the quote's following declines. If at all the pair doesn't respect 100.50 mark, the 99.50 and June lows of 98.80 are likely consecutive downside figures to entertain pair sellers.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

Monday, 07 Nov, 2016 / 6:13

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