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European dilemma: to QE or not to QE?

The malaise of the economies in the euro zone is not news anymore. The same applies to, European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi’s readiness to revive the European economies by quantitative easing (QE). Mr. Draghi, being an Italian, has a special motivation to boost the economic activity in Europe as his own country is one of the most troubled economies in the euro zone. However, the Germans, who have seen the devastating impact of hyperinflation in the not so distant history, are unwilling to start a QE program. This, added to the fact that European leaders are famous for their slow decision making process, could mean that the QE program is further delayed or implemented smaller than expected. Whether there is another QE program or not, the European economies will remain weak for an extended period of time. Europe needs structural reforms in order to become competitive and these changes tend to take time before they can be implemented and the benefits can be reaped. In addition, another flood of cheap QE money would not solve these problems, but only delay these reforms that eventually have to be implemented.

EURUSD w

EURUSD, Weekly

The pair is now between resistance and support. EURUSD has reached a weekly pivot high from July 2012 and reacted higher from it. At the same time we have the September weekly low right above us. That should keep the downward pressure on EURUSD and limit moves higher from the current levels. In light of the above it is reasonable to expect to have EURUSD fluctuating between the support and resistance over the coming week. In the longer term picture, the pair is at a lower end of a multi-year sideways move. Thus far, traders have not been able to push EURUSD below the support zone above $1.20. Part of the reason for EURUSD fluctuating in this huge trading range is the fact that we have two central banks on both sides manipulating their currencies. That is a reason to stay alert and see how the price reacts close to this historical support level.

EURUSD d

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD is forming a big wedge as it fluctuates close to the bottom of the longer term sideways move. When price forms a wedge after a longish down move it is a signal that the downside momentum is getting weaker. However, the pair is still moving lower as per traditional trend analysis (it is making lower highs and lower lows). Since Thursday last week the pair has moved up to a resistance after touching the weekly support at 1.2390. The price action from 31st Oct. to 5th Nov. (at and above of the current levels) is already causing slowing of momentum and is likely to act as a resistance. This area should provide us with opportunities on the short side.

EURUSD 4h


EURUSD, 240 min

There is a confluence area above the current price. The price is not only facing the resistance created by Wednesday’s low from last week but also the descending 50 period moving average and the descending upper end of the trend channel. In addition, the 4h Bollinger Bands are relatively close and the Money Flow Index (MFI) is turning lower while in over bought zone. Therefore, I am expecting the price to turn lower again somewhere between the current levels and the Bollinger Bands. Look for signs of momentum reversal (such as shooting stars) to confirm this view and the timing of the shorts.

DXY 4h

US Dollar Index (DXY), 240 min

As the EUR has such a heavy weighting in the DXY index (almost 60%), the DXY is often almost a mirror image of the EURUSD. Therefore, the EURUSD analysis we have made should be confirmed by the price action in the DXY futures. As we can see DXY is reacting higher from a supportive area that coincides (timing wise) with the resistance area in the EURUSD. This supports the idea of selling EURUSD at the levels suggested in my analysis

Conclusion:

The pair is in at an important weekly support level which has already proven to be valid enough to cause price to rally from it. However, at the same time the fundamentals support the view that the EUR should move lower and the USD higher. Therefore the resistance level above the current price should keep any rallies in check. The bias is on the short side as the pair is now close to very potential resistance area. We are looking for short trades between the current levels and the 4h Bollinger Bands if there is confirmation of a momentum reversal in intraday timeframes. Look to take profits when price approaches the weekly support at 1.2390.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Monday, 10 Nov, 2014 / 10:45

Source : https://blog.hotforex.com/european-dilemma-to-qe-or-not-to-qe/

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