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Euro/dollar: today’s situation is 50/50

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Euro/dollar: today’s situation is 50/50


What was expected to be seen on the euro on Wednesday was done on Tuesday. The US stats continue to stand on the side of the dollar bulls. The US housing market exceeded expectations. The number of construction permits and foundations lain in June rose.

The euro/dollar dropped 80 points to 1.0999. Meanwhile the GBP lost around two figures. The euro weakened to a lesser extent due to it strengthening in the euro/pound cross.

Market Expectations:

The current situation on the hourly is contradictory. On the one hand an inverted pattern is forming for a revival of the euro to 1.1050. On the other hand, the weakening of the euro could hasten to 1.0980 and below. The fall stopped at 8th July minimum (1.0996). If the euro/dollar exceeds 1.1022 over the course of two hours after trade opening in Europe, we could see a forecast for a strengthening to 1.1050.

Day’s News (EET):

  • 09:00, German June producer price data;
  • 11:00, Eurozone May balance of payment;
  • 11:30, UK average salary changes index, unemployment benefit applications and unemployment level in May;
  • 12:00, Swiss index for economic expectations in June from ZEW;
  • 17:00, Eurozone July consumer confidence;
  • 17:30, US changes in oil reserves for week ending 17th July.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: n/a, maximum: n/a, close: n/a.


Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

Since the last 4-hour candle isn’t closed, we need to make two scenarios. On the 4H a pinbar has formed. More precisely: a double bottom from two pinbars. You can see it better on the hourly.

If the euro/dollar exceeds 1.1022 within the two hours after trade opening in Europe, the forecast for a rise to 1.1050 will be activated. I don’t see how it could go higher since tomorrow will see the ECB convene and Draghi speak.

If the bulls don’t manage to pass the level indicated, the risks of a slide along the red scenario to 1.0980 will persist.



Wednesday, 20 Jul, 2016 / 8:31

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