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Euro/Dollar: Euro on the Rebound Due to ECB Meeting Expectations


Yesterday’s Trading:

My Wednesday expectations for the euro came off in full. The U-turn for the euro/pound after UK stats came out piled pressure on the euro/dollar. The rate fell to 1.0890 despite the fall in the US stock indices. Negative US stats also couldn’t change how the cards were being played as the ECB meeting and Draghi speaking approaches.

The US CPI for December was -0.1% (forecasted: 0.0%, previous: 0.0%).The CPI without taking inflation for food and energy in the month was 0.1% (forecasted: 0.2%, previous: 0.2%).

Construction of new houses in the country throughout December was 1.149 million (forecasted: 1.190 million, previous: 1.200 million). Permits issued for housing construction totalled 1.232 million (forecasted: 1.200 million, previous: 1.289 million).

Main news of the day (EET):

  • 14:45, ECB interest rate decision;
  • 11:30, UK labour market data: average wages for November, changes in unemployment benefit applications for December, November unemployment level;
  • 15:30, US initial unemployment benefit applications and Philadelphia manufacturing index. Draghi to speak;
  • 17:00, Eurozone consumer confidence in January (preliminary data);
  • 18:00, US ministry for oil reserve report.

Market Expectations:

The euro/dollar has seen its minimum shifted in Asia to 1.0866. At 06:16 EET, the euro was going for 1.0889 against the dollar. The Shanghai Composite was trading up by 0.51%, the Hang Seng was down by 0.31% and Brent was down to $27.97 (0.58%).

Trader attention today is on the results of the ECB meeting and the subsequent press conference to be given by Mario Draghi. These are Thursday’s key events. There is no expectation of QE or interest changes to be announced. The market is to react calmly to the ECB decision. There’ll be a spike of volatility at 15:30 EET during Draghi’s speech. A growth to 1.0917 is expected for the euro before this time. Afterwards the direction will be dependent on what Draghi says.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: n/a, minimum: n/a, close: n/a;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 100 points (4 figures).

The euro/dollar is trading around 1.0888. Wednesday’s hourly indicators have offloaded decently. Due to this, in my forecast I’ve gone for a strengthening of the euro to 1.0917 up to 15:30 EET.



At trade opening in Europe the euro/pound updated the maximum and over the course of six hours it returned to the balance line. The target on my forecast was reached. According to the TA there is a growth to 0.7706 for today. If I’m right, the cross will have a positive effect on the euro/dollar.



The euro bulls didn’t manage to break the daily trend line. A bounce of the price will see a bearish pinbar form, indicating a weakening of the euro against the dollar to 1.0825. After Draghi’s press conference it will be clear whether this will work off.



The weekly candle is forming nicely for the sellers but there’s only two days left until the end of the week.


Vladislav Antonov, Alpari analyst

Thursday, 21 Jan, 2016 / 9:08

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