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EURJPY, even after bouncing back from a two-week old descending trend-line support, maintains its weakness as short-term descending triangle formation, followed by four month old descending trend-line resistance, can continue limiting its up-move. Presently, the pair struggles around 123.00 mark, comprising 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its March – May decline, which if broken can accelerate the short-covering moves toward triangle resistance-line of 123.65. Given the pair manages to clear the 123.65, 38.2% Fibo level of 124.00 and the broader trend-line resistance, at 124.60 now, becomes following upside numbers to watch. If at all the pair surpasses 124.60, chances of its near-term south-run get negated and it can rally to the 50% Fibo mark of 124.85, then 125.40 and to the 125.85 before targeting the April highs around 126.45. Alternatively, 122.40 and the triangle support of 122.15 are likely nearby downside numbers it could witness, breaking which 121.70 and the early month lows of 121.45 may hold its further downside captive. Should the pair drops below 121.45, it could stretch the southward trajectory towards 61.8% FE of the said move, at 120.50.


On Wednesday, the GBPJPY revisited the two month old 162.50-60 horizontal resistance and again failed to surpass the same; however, the pair took a U-turn on Thursday and is again heading towards the same horizontal area, breaking which the pair can quickly rise to 164.00 mark, with 50% Fibonacci Retracement of February – April downside, near 163.30, being an intermediate halt. Given the pair maintains the up-move beyond 164.00, the 164.50 and the 61.8% Fibo level of 166.00 are likely following numbers that it could print. Meanwhile, pair's dip below 161 and the 160.10 immediate supports can drag it down to 159.50 while further weakness below 159.50 might have to confront with upward slanting trend-line, at 158.85 now, in order to visit the 158.00 and the 23.6% Fibo level of 157.15. Moreover, pair's sustained south-run below 157.15 can fetch the prices to 156.20 and the 155.70, clearing which chances of its plunge to 154.60 can't be denied.


CADJPY's third winning-day seems fueling the pair towards 85.30 immediate resistance, breaking which 85.80 and the 86.30 are likely resistances that it could witness. Provided the pair rallies beyond 86.30, the 86.80 and the 87.00 might offer intermediate halts to it prior to pushing towards 87.40-50 important resistance confluence, comprising 200-day SMA, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its June 2015 – January 2016 downside and the horizontal area. Moreover, pair's closing above 87.50 can trigger its northward trajectory towards 88.80-85 and then to the 50% Fibo level around 90.00 psychological magnet. On the downside, 84.00 and the 83.00 trend-line support level are adjacent during its pullback. Should the pair drops below 83.00 on a closing basis, it can slid towards 82.20 and the 81.50 before targeting the 80.00 round figure mark.


It seems that descending trend-channels are favorite to the CHFJPY as the pair's recent dip from 111.43 formed another downward slanting channel, inside the two month old descending trend-channel. From the current levels, the pair is likely again heading towards immediate channel resistance of 111.25, surpassing which 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its March – May downside, near 111.60, and the 112.15, are likely following resistances that it could run for. However, resistance-line of the broader channel, at 112.55, quickly followed by the 38.2% Fibo level of 112.70 could restrict the pair's extended rise beyond 112.15. Should the pair chooses to reverse, which is more likely, it can test 110.50 and the 110.15 supports prior to confronting with the channel support and the early month lows around 109.80, which was also 61.8% FE of its December 2015 – March 2016 downside. If at all the pair drops below 109.80, it becomes vulnerable enough to plunge towards 108.00 mark, comprising support-line of the two-month old channel.

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Thursday, 26 May, 2016 / 2:27

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