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EUR/USD: the flat could continue into Friday


On Wednesday the euro/dollar closed three points higher than the closing price of Tuesday. The euro was bobbing around near the LB throughout the day. The US stats held back any revival for GBP/USD and EUR/USD.

The data from ISM showed that business activity in the service sector for September had risen to 57.1 (forecasted: 53.0, previous: 51.4). August’s manufacturing orders rose 0.2% (forecasted: -0.1%, previous: 1.4%).

Market expectations:

On Thursday, trader attention is set to switch to Friday’s NFP. The data from the ADP on Wednesday did not match market expectations. Employment rose only 154k in September (forecasted: 166k previous: 175k). Despite the strong data from the ISM and manufacturing orders, the weak ADP report should have held the dollar back.

The ECB is publishing minutes from its monetary policy meeting today. We could see a spike of volatility for the euro during this time. My intraday target is 1.1234.

Day’s News (GMT+3):

  • 09:00, German industrial order changes in August;
  • 10:15, Swiss CPI for September;
  • 11:10, Eurozone business activeness in retail for September;
  • 11:30, UK mortgage lending without those for acquiring or renovating houses in Q2 of 2016;
  • 14:30, ECB monetary policy minutes;
  • 15:30, Canadian planned dismissals in September from Challenger;
  • 15:30, Canadian construction permits in August and US initial unemployment benefit applications;
  • 17:30, natural gas reserve changes for week ending 2nd October;
  • 18:50, BoC’s Wilkins to speak.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1189, maximum: 1.1234, close: 1.1221.


Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

As I reckoned, the euro/dollar spent the day in a sideways. The target was hovering around the balance line between the 90th and 45th degrees. In my forecast I’ve gone for the price remaining in a 1.1185-1.1240 range until Friday.

You probably thought that maybe the price will leave this range today. Maybe after the ECB’s minutes come out. For this, though, there is another range: 1.1160-1.1270.


Thursday, 06 Oct, 2016 / 8:17

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