Technical analysis and trading recommendations - https://fxpcm.com/en/fx/eurusd-dollar-decline-has-slowed-foreign-exchange-market-08062016
Waiting for raising interest rates in the United States at the meeting of the Fed's June 15 strongly decreased after weak NFP May. However, the dollar's decline has slowed in the currency market. Even if the rate will not be raised in June, the market participants has reason to believe is possible to increase in July.
Although D.Yellen not made clear in the question of the further steps the Fed in terms of tightening in US monetary policy and the Fed confirmed its intention to use caution when raising interest rates, signals to minimize a program of gradual tightening in US monetary policy in a speech on Monday D.Yellen not It contained.
Disappointing data on NFP in May, it is certainly a negative factor. However, D.Yellen no accident in this saw.
Moreover, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.7% (forecast 4.9% and 5.0% in April), showing an approximation to full employment of the US population. Published yesterday, the inflation indicator (labor costs per unit of production), increased by 4.5% (vs. 4.0% and 4.1% in the previous quarter), and this has a positive effect on the growth of inflation in the US, aspires to Fed. The consumer price index in this case in April rose by 1.1% in annual terms. In a paper published in the "Beige Book" (in the regions of the US Federal Reserve report on economic conditions) last week pointed out that "in most regions experiencing a rise in labor markets." Wages and employment growth are called moderate.
In addition to the weak NFP the pair EUR / USD is supported by published yesterday revised positive data on euro area GDP in the first quarter (+ 0.6% and + 1.7% yoy), was better than expected.
Strong news drivers for the EUR / USD over the weekend also not expected. It is worth, perhaps, attention to data on German trade balance for April (published on Thursday 07:00 GMT) and the indices of consumer and wholesale prices in Germany in May (published Friday 07:00 GMT), which can cause volatility in the pair with the euro .