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On Tuesday the euro/dollar was reaching for the support at 1.0850. The sharp price bounce could only have been facilitated by US stats and Carney and Draghi speaking. The Conference Board consumer confidence index for October didn’t meet expectations: dropping to 98.6. The euro restored from 1.0851 to 1.0905.
Market expectations:
After three separate rebounds from 1.0850/60, the risks of heading to 1.0918-1.0930 are up. The Aussie currency could provoke European traders since it strengthened 80 points against the dollar following publication of consumer inflation data in Australia for the third quarter. Inflation ended up higher than the market had expected.
Taking into account that there are a lot of long positions from small-time speculators for the euro, a rise in quotes will be used by the sellers to get rid of euro. If we go off the four-hour time-frame: a rise in the quotes above 1.0920 will mean the buyers open the road up for themselves to 1.0945/50. Even in this case the bearish trend will persist for the euro/dollar.
Day’s News (GMT+3):
- 09:00, German consumer confidence in October from Gfk;
- 10:00, German September import prices;
- 11:30, UK mortgage approvals in September from BBA;
- 15:30, US preliminary data on wholesale reserves for September;
- 16:45, preliminary business activity index in the service sector for October;
- 17:00, US September first-time sales on the housing market;
- 17:30, US oil and gas reserves for the week ending 22nd October.
Technical Analysis:
Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0874 (current Asian), maximum: 1.0918, close: 1.0906.
Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView
On Tuesday the euro/dollar dropped to 1.0851. The price was 21 points off the calculated level. The 157th degree held out from the sellers attacks. From here the price restored by 45 points to 1.0905. The price bounced after weak consumer confidence data came out.
In my forecast I’ve gone for a rise to 1.0918. I don’t really want to be looking at a strengthening of the euro. The morning’s rise of the AUD/USD is interfering for any forecast of a fall. I reckon that whilst the rates are rising we need to use this to sell euros. Growth to cancel with a close of the hourly candle below 1.0869.