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EUR/USD: in anticipation of the publication of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting _18/05/2016

Technical analysis and trading recommendations -

Published yesterday, the positive US data (consumer price index (the CPI), housing starts, industrial production and capacity utilization) for April have identified the positive dynamics of the US dollar today with the opening of the trading session in Asia. The US dollar strengthened in the market, including in the pair EUR / USD.
Most likely, the positive dynamics of the dollar will continue today until the publication of FOMC minutes, but its further dynamics will depend on the text of the protocol, and presented by the macroeconomic data from the US.

Meanwhile, according to data presented today by Eurostat, the core inflation in the euro area slowed to its lowest level since April 2015. It seems that the Eurozone returned deflation.

Preliminary GDP released on Friday, was modest and below the forecast (+ 0.5% vs. + 0.6% expected, + 1.5% yoy vs. 1.6% forecast).

The ECB's efforts for acceleration of inflation and maintaining economic growth in the euro area is given poor results, despite the assurances of the ECB's key figures, headed by Chairman Mario Draghi that the ECB pursued monetary policy is correct and should lead soon to the long-awaited success.

As many as three influential Fed officials (President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan) on Tuesday expressed the view that US interest rates could be raised at the meeting already in June. On Monday, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker also said that there is a "high probability" of raising interest rates at the June meeting of the Fed.

Thus, given the different directions of the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB, it is possible to conclude that a further decrease in the pair EUR / USD, up to the Fed meeting on 15 June.

Today at 18:00 (GMT) will be published minutes of the meeting of the Federal Committee on open market the US Federal Reserve operations. The protocol should clarify the immediate future monetary policy of the USA, and its publication will have a strong impact on the dynamics of the US dollar, including the pair EUR / USD.

Wednesday, 18 May, 2016 / 11:10

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