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Equities in the red ahead of lift-off; ZAR bounced back, Japan: Business sentiment holds steady

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- EUR/USD has been unable to break above the resistance lying at around 1.1030 (support lying at 1.0945) as traders adjust their positions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting during which Yellen will most likely increased interest rates for the first time since 2006

- In South Africa the rand is experiencing a roller coaster ride with USD/ZAR reaching record highs on Friday before returning to 15.05 on Sunday as President Zuma reappointed Pravin Gordhan as Finance Minister

- Brazil, the mounting political turmoil is definitely not helping the government to address the fiscal gap and is even dragging out the potential recovery further with Brazilian real expected to remain under pressure

- Q4 Japan Tankan survey is showing slightly better economic sentiment than the previous quarter thanks to the decline in oil prices and the optimistic capital spending which should increase, according to the survey, by 10.85 next year

- As a result the Friday BoJ Meeting should not disclose any surprise as business sentiment holds steady. We remain bearish on the JPY as long as there is significant evidence that inflation is back

The People’s Bank of China lowered the renminbi for a sixth straight day against the backdrop of a persistent sell-off in equity markets. The central bank set USD/CNY to 6.4495, the highest level since July 2011, while in off-shore markets the pair reached 6.5608 in overnight trading. The weaker yuan helped mainland shares to stay in positive territory, while the sell-off continues everywhere else. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite were up 2.46% and 1.89% respectively. In Japan, the Nikkei and the Topix were down 1.80% and 1.40%. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng fell 0.63%, while in South Korea the Kospi erased 1.07%.

EUR/USD has been unable to break above the resistance lying at around 1.1030 as traders adjust their positions ahead Wednesday’s Fed meeting during which Yellen will most likely increased interest rates for the first time since 2006. The euro paired losses in Tokyo but remained in its hourly uptrend channel. A support lies at 1.0945 (50-day moving average), while on the upside, the 20dma standing at 1.0933 will act as resistance.

In the EM, the South African rand experienced a roller coaster ride with USD/ZAR reaching record highs on Friday before returning to 15.05 on Sunday as President Zuma reappointed Pravin Gordhan as Finance Minister. The rand was under heavy selling fire on since Wednesday after Jacob Zuma named David Van Rooyen finance minister in place of Nhlanhla Nene. However, President Zuma couldn’t resist the pressure and reappointed Ghordan who held the position from 2009 to early 2014. USD/ZAR dropped 5.30% and is now trading around 15.0860 as traders try to find their marks amid volatile environment.

***Yann Quelenn, Market Analyst: Japan: “Q4 Tankan reports have been released. These are quarterly business confidence polls issued by the Bank of Japan. This data is then used to formulate the monetary policy. 11’000 firms have been asked to assess the Japanese economic conditions with the results showing a slightly better economic sentiment than the previous quarter.

Please note that Tankan’s sentiment indexes are a set of surveys that represent the difference between those who say that conditions are good and those who say conditions are poor. A positive reading means optimists outnumber pessimists. More specifically, Tankan Small & Large Non-Manufacturing Index printed better at 25, a result which was better than expected as a weak yen boosted tourism on the island. In addition Small & Large Manufacturing Index printed in unchanged.

Consequently, Japanese business confidence remains at a decent level thanks to the decline in oil prices and the optimistic capital spending which should increase by 10.85 next year according to the survey. As a result, Friday's BoJ Meeting should not disclose any surprises as business sentiment holds steady. Yet, the Yen was weakened this morning on the Tankan release as Markets priced in better data. Nonetheless, we remain bearish on the JPY as long as there is significant evidence that inflation is back.”***

On Sunday in Brazil, people gathered in the streets to protest against the government, demanding President Rousseff's impeachment. Even though the protests are adding pressure on Dilma Rousseff, the smaller scale of the demonstrations allowed Rousseff to remain silent on Sunday. The mounting political turmoil is definitely not helping the government to address the fiscal gap and is even dragging out the potential recovery further. The situation should not improve substantially over the first half of 2016 as impeachment proceedings will remain the main focus. USD/BRL closed at 3.8728 on Friday. The Brazilian real is expected to remain under pressure; however the latest developments have not helped clarify this point.

Today traders will be watching industrial production from the euro zone and Draghi’s speech in Bologna; inflation report form India and Italy; exports and imports from India.

Source: https://en.swissquote.com/fx/news
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