- All eyes on the Fed decision due later today, volatility should remain pretty low today as traders brace themselves for the decision
- We are little bit more bearish, betting on a smaller (less than 25bps) increase of the Federal fund rate expecting a dovish statement from Yellen
- USDJPY testing the resistance lying at 122,25
- EURUSD failing to break 1,1050 level
- GBP/USD on the upside may once again test 1.5185, while on the downside a support can be found at 1.4895
***Peter Rosenstreich, Head of Market Strategy, Swissquote Bank: “Finally, the big day is here and the waiting is over...hopefully. Stocks are higher but currencies and commodities are generally stable pre-Fed as we await the highly anticipated and overly hyped FOMC December meeting, which should result in the first rate hike in nine years. With a 25bp hike to the target Fed funds already universally priced in, investors will be listening for guidance on forward economic forecasts and a new tightening path or „dots“. While the press conference will be the primary focus, simply the action of raising rates should spark significant volatility (just remember most traders active today have never seen the Fed hike rates). We anticipate that Yellen will emphasise a gradual pace of rate hikes, the effect of USD pricing on decision and underline a generally dovish economic outlook. Trading USD for any extended directional move will be difficult yet we suspect that USD should strengthen on the result. First of all, pre-FOMC positing has been heavily short USD against the G10 (stronger against the EM currencies), while there is the possiblility that Yellen could sound slightly less dovish in her US economic outlook, suggesting a quicker pace of rate hikes (the rate markets are positioned for shallow curves as US front-ends yields have been range bound this month, although rates have jumped in the last 48 hours). We remain constructive on the USD especially against EM and commodity linked currencies in the aftermath of today’s events. Especially if risk appetite remains cautions (volatility is rising across the board). EURUSD failed to close above the 200d MA at 1.1035 suggesting a period of exhaustion and further risk to downside support at 1.0880.
We are unconvinced that global markets will stabilize after the FOMC decision, so traders should keep their vacations local. There have been worrying swings in high yield credit spreads (and Third Avenue's collapse) indicting the debt market’s anxiety with adapting to the new tightening era. As pointed out by the Financial Times today the $1.3tn junk bond markets has relied heavily on endless cheap money. While so far only the energy sectors have been truly effected we suspect that defaults will quickly spread as the cost of funding swiftly rises.”***
In Asia, shares took heart from Europe and Wall Street and rallied on Wednesday ahead of the Fed’s rate hike decision. European stocks bounced back yesterday after a five-day losing streak. The DAX 30 rose 3.07%, the CAC 40 gained 3.16%, the FTSEMIB jumped 3.74% and the SPI was up 2.37%. The elation was more contained across the Atlantic as the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones surged 1.06%, 0.87% and 0.90% respectively. Small caps were the biggest winner as the Russell 2000 soared 1.41%. In Asia overnight, Japanese shares stood amongst the biggest winners with the Nikkei and the Topix index up 2.61% and 2.54% in spite of a slowing manufacturing activity. Manufacturing PMI eased to 52.5 in December from 52.6 in the previous month, while Machine tool orders contracted by 17.7%y/y in November (versus -17.9% first estimate). USD/JPY traded higher in Tokyo after rising almost 1% in the European session. The pair is currently testing the resistance lying at 122; however the strongest level standing at 122.25 will be the real test. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng jumped 1.88%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp are up 0.17% and 0.68% respectively.
EUR/USD failed once again to break the strong 1.1050 level to the upside and finally fell to 1.0910 on better-than-expected US data. Yesterday's inflation report showed that the impact of last year’s drop of crude oil prices on the year-over-year gauge starts to disappear. Headline CPI climbed to 0.5%y/y, beating market expectations of 0.4% and above previous reading of 0.2%. The core measure (excluding food and energy) came in line with consensus, printing at 2%y/y in November (1.9% in October). Separately, the Empire manufacturing index came in above consensus, printing at -4.59 versus -7 median forecast, but indicates that the sector has difficulties to adjust to a strong dollar environment.
In the United Kingdom, inflation moved above zero for the first time since July this year. Despite the small uptick in November, there is still a long way before meeting the BoE’s target. Price grew 0.1%y/y in November, matching expectation and above previous month reading of -0.1%. The core gauge climbed to 1.2%y/y from 1.1% in October. GBP/USD’s response was muted yesterday as traders focussed on the upcoming interest rate decision by the Fed. The cable fell almost 1% yesterday as rate hike speculation triggered a dollar rally. This pair stabilised around 1.5040 in Tokyo and traded range bound within a narrow range. On the upside, a resistance lies at 1.5185 (yesterday high), while on the downside a support can be found at 1.4895 (low from December 2nd).
With attention squarely on the Fed volatility should remain pretty low today as traders brace themselves for the decision. The consensus for a rate hike of 25bps has a probability of roughly 80%. However, we are little bit more bearish betting on a smaller increase of the federal fund rate. We also expect a dovish statement from Yellen.
Today traders will be watching PMIs from France, Germany and the euro zone; jobless claims and ILO unemployment rate from UK; ZEW survey from Switzerland; CPI from euro zone; retail sales from Brazil; housing starts, building permits, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing PMI and FOMC rate decision from the US; GDP from New Zealand.