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Brent: Sellers Targeting $42.20

On Monday Brent closed at $46.15 per barrel. The price gap was +1.8%. Oil was up due to the Saudi minister for oil losing his positions and the forest fires in Canada.

On 7th May, the Salman of Saudi Arabia, Salman, bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, dismissed the chief of the ministry for oil, Ali al-Naimi. The ministry for oil was replaced by the newly created ministry for energy, industry and mineral resources, headed by oil company Saudi Aramco.

Canada is on fire. The territory engulfed in flames in Alberto has reached 200 hectares. The fires have been burning since 1st May. The fires have forced oil companies to lessen extraction by 1 million barrels per day, according to Bloomberg. Specialists reckon that if the temperature and wind doesn’t die down, the fires will burn for another few months.

In the second half of the day Brent fell by 6.0% to $43.30. There was no news behind this fall. What happened was the buyers were unable to strengthen above $46.76 and a bear set up returned to the market, caused by Iranian oil minister Zanganeh, who announced on Sunday that Iran doesn’t accept the plan proposed by Saudi Arabia to freeze oil production.

Since the $44.17-44.43 support zone has been passed (see graph) and the economic calendar is empty, I’ll take a risk in saying that oil quotes will fall to $42.20. It’s possible that 42.20 is a little low for Tuesday. If the price isn’t in a rush to get to my forecasted line, then we can consider above $42.60 as a target.



Tuesday, 10 May, 2016 / 7:40

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