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Brent: in anticipation of FOMC minutes _17.08.2016

Technical analysis and trading recommendations-

Once reached local highs yesterday near the mark of 49.30 at today's oil prices are down moderately.
Signs that Iran probably will not participate in the September talks, OPEC (26 - 28 September) indicate that the meeting in Algeria could end up without any action to stabilize the oil market.

On Tuesday, a spokesman for the Iranian Oil Ministry said that Iran has not yet decided to participate in the September meeting of OPEC.

Optimism regarding the achievement of the major oil-producing countries to freeze production agreement can also quickly melt away as he came after earlier statements by the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia and the optimistic forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the possibility of reducing the excessive world oil reserves as a result of high demand.

Minister of Petroleum of Nigeria, which is also a member of OPEC, said Monday that the probability of reaching an agreement in September low.

Support for oil prices is also having a weakening US dollar on weak expectations about imminent rate hikes in the United States. According to CME Group, futures on interest rates account for 18% probability of a rate hike in September and 51% probability of the Fed tightening policy in December.

Conflicting data and statements of representatives of major oil producing countries continue to shake the oil market. Since the beginning of August the price of Brent crude rose by about $ 7 per barrel, rebounding from the support level near the mark of 41.70.

Prices on Tuesday rose to a new monthly high on news that Russia is planning a meeting with the members of OPEC in October. News strengthened the hope that the major oil producers agreed to limit production.

The participants of the oil market are waiting for the weekly data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products in the US, which will be released today at 14:30 (GMT). In recent weeks, the cumulative US crude stocks and petroleum products grew, and their further increase can put pressure on prices.

Also, the attention of the financial markets will be focused today for publication at 18:00 minutes of the Fed meeting, held on July 26-27.

If the protocols will contain signals the possibility of a rate hike in September, the dollar strengthened sharply on the currency market. Commodity prices then, including oil, can purchase a downward trend

Wednesday, 17 Aug, 2016 / 11:00

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