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AUD/USD: the decline will continue _19/05/2016

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Overview and Dynamics

An additional impetus to continue the reduction of the Australian dollar received today after the publication of weak data on employment in Australia. According to the data released on Thursday, the share of the labor force in the total population has decreased (64.8% vs 64.9% in March), in April, the number of new jobs in Australia in April, 10 800 (12 000 and 25 700 forecast in March) unemployment in Australia in April remained at the level of 5.7%. Reducing the number of hours worked in all sectors of the economy (-17.9 million) indicate a weakening of employment growth momentum.

After yesterday's sharp strengthening of the US dollar against the publication of minutes of the Fed meeting, which was held April 26-27, on Thursday the Australian dollar and the pair AUD / USD continues to decline, trading at lows for nearly three months.

In the published minutes of the Fed rate hike in June is called explicitly possible.

The minutes stated that "... if in the 2nd quarter economic data will correspond to the acceleration of economic growth, labor market conditions continue to improve, and inflation will approach the target level of 2%, it will probably be advisable to increase the target range for the Fed rate June. "

The Australian currency will remain under pressure also due to a renewed decline in prices for metals and iron ore, the main components of the export economy. Growth expectations about the Fed raising interest rates have a negative impact on risk appetite, putting pressure on the stock market and commodity currencies.

After the interest rate cut in Australia at the beginning of the month to a level of 1.75% The AUD / USD has lost so far more than 400 points. Due to expectations of another reduction interest rates pair AUD / USD will continue to decline.

Thus, for a month or less pair AUD / USD may well reach the mark 0.7000.

Today, it is worth paying attention to the address by the Vice-Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Stanley Fischer in New York (13:15 GMT). If Fisher will support a rate hike in June, it could trigger a further increase in the US dollar.

Thursday, 19 May, 2016 / 11:06

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