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AUD/USD: rebound from the support level 0.7445 _05/05/2016

Technical analysis and trading recommendations -

Tuesday RB Australia for the first time in June 2015 lowered the key interest rate (by a quarter percentage point to a level of 1.75%), which caused a sharp decline in the Australian dollar prices. The AUD / USD has lost that day more than 180 points, as volatility in the pair was more than 230 points.

According to the bank, the Australian economy began to grow at a modest pace than in 2015, and the latest labor market indicators have become more controversial. In a statement, the RBA also stated that the strengthening of the Australian dollar may complicate the correction in the economy.

However, many economists believe that the Australian dollar may soon recover and to restrain the growth of the Australian currency may require a further reduction in key interest rates.

Positive data, today received in the morning supported the Australian currency.

Australia's trade deficit in March narrowed (-2.163 billion Australian dollars against 3.044 billion in February and 2.900 billion forecast) is believed to be due to rising prices for iron ore, the main export product of Australia.

The volume of exports, which is an important indicator of the rate of growth of the Australian economy grew by 4% (against the reduction of 1% in the previous month). At the same time there was also a strong increase in exports of services. Imports also increased by 1% (compared with zero growth in February), indicating that while low, but the growth of domestic demand.

Also in March, marginally, but increased the volume of retail sales (+ 0.4% vs. 0.3% and growth of 0.1% in February).

The recent strengthening of the Australian dollar may be concerned about not only the country's exporters, but also threaten the boom of services, particularly in the tourism and education sectors.

On Friday at 00:30 (GMT) will be published on the comments the RBA monetary policy, in which the bank will provide forecasts of economic growth, inflation and employment in the country.

Most likely, inflation forecasts will be revised sharply lower after,
according to data presented earlier, the annual core inflation was only 1.7% with growth forecast at 2.0% (growth of 2.1% in the previous quarter), reaching a record low. Thus, the rate may be reduced again this year, posing downside risks to the Australian currency.

Thursday, 05 May, 2016 / 11:54

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