Trading news

AUD/NZD: important level of 1.1260

Technical analysis and trading recommendations -

Economy of New Zealand and Australia largely export-oriented, as commodities account for a large share of exports between the two countries. At least 20% of all products manufactured in New Zealand and intended for export, and an important export sector of the economy is considered to be agriculture. Exports of dairy products is not less than 18% of total exports.

At the same time the largest buyer of New Zealand production is China. And the decline in Chinese imports on the background of a slowdown in China's economy, as well as low international prices for dairy and other agricultural produce, painfully reflected on the state of the New Zealand economy.

At the last before the March auction dairy price index for dairy products fell by 2.9%, thus reducing, receipt of export proceeds to the state budget.

Australia's economy, too, can be largely attributed to the export-oriented raw materials economy. However, in Australia developed strongly enough oil and gas sector of the economy, and in the mining sector still hear the echoes of the recent boom in its development.

Also recently, from Australia come very positive data on the state of its economy. Thus, the GDP grew by 3.0%, which is higher than the forecast of 2.6% in Q4 2015. In the previous quarter also marked by good growth of 2.7%. The growing rate of GDP indicates the stability of the economy state.

Dynamics of the pair AUD / NZD was defined in March in major decisions of the central banks of New Zealand and Australia. If the RBA left once again the interest rate unchanged, holding it with the RBA in May 2015 at 2%, the RB New Zealand all of a sudden at the beginning of the month has lowered it to 0.25% to 2.25%. As reported in the following comments, the central bank fears a further deterioration of the global economic outlook and inflation expectations.

In this situation, it is logical to assume further growth of the pair AUD / NZD. However, not all so simple. The high exchange rate is not favorable to exporters Australia and harms the recovery of the Australian economy. Further growth of the Australian dollar quotations wary central bankers of the country.

In a situation where the majority of the world's central banks follow the path of easing monetary policy RBA sooner or later follow suit.
April 5 RBA decides on interest rates. In case of reduction followed by a long overdue decrease in the Australian dollar, which also will affect the pair AUD / NZD.

Monday, 28 Mar, 2016 / 1:27

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