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An Interest Rate Hike Unlikely In September

The euro rose against the US dollar, recovering from a 2-day loss. The euro was supported by the high Current Account Index, which reached 25.4 billion in June. From the US side, the Consumer Price Index for July fell down to 0.1% from 0.3% in the previous month. Consumer Price Index excluding fuels and food also declined to 0.1% from 0.2%. The dollar was also affected by the FOMC meeting minutes released yesterday, which stated that the conditions for moving to tighten the monetary policy has not yet been achieved, but the current conditions is approaching that point.
European Economic Data:
Time GMT Event Vol Forecast Previous
06:00 Producer Price Index in Germany (Jul) 1 star 1.4-% 1.4-%
06:00 Producer Price Index in Germany (yearly) 1 star 0.1-% 0.1-%
American Economic Data
Time GMT Event Vol Forecast Previous
12:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Aug) 2 star 272 K 274K
12:30 Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug) 2 star 2.265 M
14:00 CB Leading Indicator (Jul) 2 star 0.2% 0.6%
14:00 Manufacturing Survey (Jul) 2 star 7.0 5.7
14:00 Existing Home Sales Change (Jul) 2 star 0.6-% 3.2%
14.30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 2 star 60 B 65B

The pound rose against the US dollar despite the absence of economic data from the UK; however it found support from the negative US figures released.
British Economic Data
Time GMT Event Vol Forecast Previous
08:30 Retail Sales (Jul) 2 star 0.4% 0.2-%
08:30 Retail Sales ex fuel (yearly) 2star 4.3% 4.2%
08:30 Retail Sales (yearly) 2 star 4.4% 4.0%
08:30 Retail Sales ex fuel (Jul) 2 star 0.4% 0.2-%
10:00 Industrial Trend Survey (Aug) 1 star 10- 10-

The US dollar traded lower against the Japanese Yen on Wednesday after negative economic data released from the US. The yen also found some support from the positive Overall Industry Index during the month of June which rose to 0.3%, and as investors await the decision of the Bank of Japan on interest rate.
Japanese Economic Data
Time GMT Event Vol Forecast Previous
BOJ Meeting 3 star

The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar, like all major currencies, taking advantage of the stability Westpac Leadership Index, which is an indicator of the economic activity in Australia. The negative data released from the US side also supported the pair higher.
Australian Economic Data
Time GMT Event Vol Forecast Previous
01:30 Foreign Exchange Transaction (Jul) 1 star 2.992M

Gold prices rose for the fifth straight session to its highest level in five weeks. The rising gold levels came at the expense of the weak dollar, after the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, and the diminishing probability of an interest rate hike in September.

Crude oil prices fell for the second consecutive session, trading near its lowest level in six years, in spite of the sharp drop in the US dollar levels, reflecting the weakness of oil. On the other hand, the EIA report released yesterday showed a rise in US crude oil inventories which reflects the decline in demand from the United States which weighed down further on the prices of crude.

All market information provided in the ICM Capital Daily Market Outlook is based on several independent sources believed to be reliable and are written in good faith. This information does not represent personalised investment advice nor a solicitation for the trading of any investment or any trades. The prices and news mentioned in this outlook are absolutely no guarantee of future market performance. There are risks associated with any investment and we strongly encourage readers to supplement the information in this Market report with independent research and other professional advice before making any investment decisions.

Thursday, 20 Aug, 2015 / 9:23

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