This week lacked fundamentals on its first trading day across the board, which led to a tight trading range in most currencies and equities. Crude Oil remains the most volatile as everyone awaits a possible announcement by OPEC to cut and/or freeze oil production to support the prices. As for today, many economic figures will be released throughout the day in both Europe and the US. This is set to have a notable impact on the markets. In today’s article, we will discuss the upcoming economic releases from the US with a particular focus on what to look for and how to trade the news.
Definitions
US Revised GDP: Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is released quarterly, about 60 days after the quarter ends. This is the second reading of the GDP data, which usually has a notable impact on the markets. This is especially the case when the revision is significant.
US Consumer Confidence: This index measures the level of a composite index based on surveyed households. A survey of about 5,000 households asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and the overall economic situation. It is released monthly on the last Tuesday of the month.
Why Is This Important?
GDP: It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advanced release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact.
Consumer Confidence: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Expectations
Indicator
Forecast
Previous
Prelim GDP
3.0%
2.9%
CB Consumer Confidence
101.3
98.6
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI
5.3%
5.1%
All eyes will be on the GDP data at the beginning of the session. The estimates point to a revision to the upside toward 3.0% up from 2.9%, which would be the highest growth rate since Q3 of 2014. This would support the Federal Reserve's decision to raise rates in December. The second part of the US session will revolve around the CB Consumer Confidence Index, which is expected to recover above 100 again all the way to 101.3. This would be the highest reading in two months and the second highest reading of this year.
Market Impact
Generally speaking, a positive outcome should keep the positive sentiment towards the US Dollar, while a weaker outcome might lead to a short-term decline. However, traders should also keep in mind that market participants are pricing a 100% chance for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December's meeting. Therefore, a decline in USD for whatever reason is most likely to be short-lived, probably staying above the 100.0 barrier. Only a weekly close below that solid support would change the bullish outlook into a short-term correction.