Natural Gas Futures Likely to Carve Out a Higher Low

The steady decline in natural gas futures prices since late January coincides with the seasonal pattern in the natural gas futures prices. However, this time around, prices are likely to post a higher low, which could indicate a potential renewal of the uptrend over the coming months.


Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report

Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration released the weekly Natural gas inventory report. The official data on the stockpiles showed that supplies of natural gas fell by 114 billion cubic feet for the week ending February 10. It was smaller than the forecasts of 126 billion cubic feet.

The EIA’s data showed that total natural gas stocks were at 2.445 billion cubic feet, down 303 billion cubic feet from a year before. However, the EIA said that the current stocks were above the five-year average at 87 billion cubic feet. Following the report, Natural gas futures for March delivery fell sharply and extended the declines breaking below the $3.00 handle.

For the week ending February 10, natural gas rigs increased to 149, from 145 recorded in the previous week. So far, the total number of active rigs increased by 47 in the past year but was still seen to be over 90% lower compared to the peak registered in 2008. The natural gas rig count is expected to be released later today and could post near term risks for natural gas prices.

The current declines mark the 38.2% retracement level, measuring from $1.676 lows from 6th March 2016 and the $3.879 highs from December 25th, 2016. Adding some validation to the current declines is the bearish divergence seen on the Stochastics oscillator which coincided with the doji candlestick near the $3.80 handle and as noted previously in the natural gas futures commentary in December.

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