Euro Steady on Merkel Hopes

1. The euro hit a two month high Friday and is nudging back slightly this morning. This comes amid confidence that Angela Merkel will rescue a coalition deal that will ensure her continuation in power. The EUR/JPY has sipped back though as the yen generally gains traction.

2. The yen pairs are on the back foot as business confidence wanes and traders pull back from funding riskier bets. The USD/JPY is continuing its down swing, while other dollar pairs follow suit.

3. The AUD/USD has continued to slip lower, while the AUD/JPY appears poised for further losses.

4. The US dollar index is continuing its mini slump, though volumes should increase today post Thanksgiving.

Coming up today

1. Coming up today, we have MPC member Haldane speaking at 14.30.

2. US new home sales are at 15.00.

3. FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 22.30.

Trade Idea

The AUD/JPY appears poised as one of the market bellwethers and the omens do not look good. A sustained downswing could see the AUD/JPY break through the current impasse to the downside.

A good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the AUD/JPY will close below 84.25 for a potential return of 161%.
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