BIAS FOR EACH CURRENCY - 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

USD - BULLISH
1️⃣ Investors digest the first debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The debate was full of insults and interruptions and raised concerns of a contested vote and a not so clear result.
2️⃣ Safe-haven dollar is on the rise following the chaotic presidential debate.

GBP - BEARISH
1️⃣ Last round of negotiations on the post-Brexit UK-EU trade deal continues, with both sides under high pressure to reach an agreement amid the coronavirus pandemic.
2️⃣ The dollar gained as investors digested a chaotic presidential debate overnight between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
3️⃣ UK GDP was upgraded to -19.8% in the final read for Q2.

EUR - BEARISH
1️⃣ Inflation data for Europe's largest economies came in weaker than expected in September, raising concerns about the pace of economic recovery amid the coronavirus pandemic.
2️⃣ The dollar gained as investors digested a chaotic presidential debate overnight between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

NZD - BEARISH
1️⃣ Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden faced off in their first presidential debate.
2️⃣ ANZ’s Business Confidence read slightly lower at -28.5%.

CAD - BEARISH
1️⃣ Crude oil fell amid mounting concerns over fuel demand recovery as the number of coronavirus infections continue to rise worldwide.
2️⃣ US dollar index bounces off weekly low amid uncertainty over election results.
3️⃣ Canada's GDP data expected to print lower due to lower retail sales and trade balance.

AUD -BEARISH
1️⃣ Investors retreated from the risk-sensitive Aussie as Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden faced off in their first presidential debate, which rapidly descended into farce and name-calling.
2️⃣ Daily coronavirus infections continue to improve in Australia’s hotspot of Victoria, where 13 new cases were reported on Wednesday.

JPY - BULLISH
1️⃣ JPY is a core beneficiary of a low-for-ever global rates regime.
2️⃣ Structural outflows depressed JPY's negative beta to risk markets in 1Q/2Q - these were one-time flows and hence we see no reason to suppose JPY won't function as safe-haven from politically-inspired pressure on equity markets around the US election.

CHF - BULLISH
1️⃣ A fresh wave of the global risk aversion trade as depicted by a steep fall in the equity markets, did little to boost the Swiss franc's perceived safe-haven status.

Xero Capital Markets Ltd. Review