Gold
Gold spent most of last week trading circa low to mid 1220's and started this week in the same vein. Yesterday saw the first decent selling for a few weeks, at one point touching a low of 1211 before closing at 1214. This is where it sits in early trading today and the Bulls should not allow Gold to stay here for an extended period. If they fail to act, then there could be another test of the psychological 1200 support. Gold did move marginally through this point on 13th and 14th of this month, but eventually staged a reasonable bounce. To the upside, there is resistance on any approach to 1230 but the stronger level is the 38.2 Fibonacci Retracement of the sell-off that began last April which comes in at 1238. As with the 1200 support, Gold moved through this resistance briefly, but it is a close above or below these two levels that could trigger the next technical move.
Currencies
GBP continued to weaken against USD for the fourth consecutive week. Similar to Gold, there has been strong selling since mid-April, touching a low of 1.2661 by the 12thAugust. There was then a decent enough bounce that also like Gold, wilted on the approach to the 38.2 Fib Retracement of this large down move. There were then long upper shadows emerging warning that the upside was being rejected. Early trading today shows GBP circa the 1.2740 area and it is hard to imagine where encouragement for the Bulls to act will come from. If it continues lower over coming sessions then the outlook is poor. It is notable that 1.2661 is also the neckline of a complex Head and Shoulders formation which could have significant technical ramifications if breached convincingly.