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GBPUSD: Golden opportunity or not?

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Over the last year, GBP seems to rally against the USD. Nevertheless, the majority of economic data for sterling have been weak, and this could probably be the major reason for its fall. According to investing.com “The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.62% to 92.20, a four-month high.”

In April, the Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index fell from 59.3 to 57.3. During the month April, the manufacturing activity has remained the same while the construction spending decreased to 1.7% compared with the previous month.

Morgan Stanley reports that Fed is expected to leave the interest rates the same and probably will rate hikes ahead of a widely expected rate hike in June. Additionally, Morgan Stanley stated that: “We expect the Fed to next hike rates at its June meeting, with little change in the ‘dots’ and forecasts. We continue to look for a total of three hikes this year, followed by a pause, and two additional hikes in 2019 where we think the hiking cycle ends.”

Regarding the technical side, since the 18th of January 2017, it has been observed that the price was making higher highs and higher lows giving us the clue that the price might have been climbing to the upside. Based on the chart below it could be noticed that the price broke at 1.36418 level.

The trend line here seems to be broken for the first time, after a year and could give the impression that it is gaining momentum. Based on the Ichimoku system, it seems that we have a Kumo break out again for the first time after a year.

The lines Tekan Sen and Kijun Sen appear in a bear formation, and the Chikou span seems to be below the cloud as well.

About the Author:

Marios Athinodorou is TeleTrade’s market analyst and commentator. Apart from being an experienced trader, Marios is an advanced technical analyst and is interested in trading psychology. He has 7 years of trading expertise in Forex and CFDs, providing insights to share with all kinds of traders, from beginners to experts. Among others, Marios is delivering weekly trading webinars. Sign up for upcoming webinars, here.

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