With the opening of the trading day on Monday quotes of commodity currencies, including the Australian dollar rose. Strengthened by the output prices for iron ore, as well as grown in the Asian session, oil prices again reached the level of 34.00 during the European session, allowed the pair AUD / USD strengthened by more than 40 points and almost reach the level of 0.7200. On the growth of the pair is not even affected by statements on Friday member of the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia John Edwards overvalued Australian dollar. According to him, a fair rate for the pair AUD / USD is close to the level of 0.6500, almost 700 pips below the current level.
Meanwhile, the situation in the economy and the labor market in Australia is getting worse.
Unemployment in Australia rose in January (6% vs. 5.8% and 5.8% in the previous month), while inflationary pressures are easing, being near zero marks. Thus, the annual inflation rate in January was only 0.4%.
Wednesday 00:30 (GMT) published data on wages in the 4th quarter. Against the backdrop of rising unemployment on the wage demands of employees are likely to be quite restrained.
It is expected that the RBA cut interest rates this year to 1.5% from the current 2.0% in two steps of 25 basis points in May and in July.
Against the background of the continuing instability in world financial markets and the declining trend in commodity pair AUD / USD will remain under pressure in the medium term.
Therefore, short positions on the pair AUD / USD looks more preferable, despite the current on local strengthening of the pair.
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