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Brent: rebound from the level 42.30 _11/04/2016

PCM Brokers

Technical analysis and trading recommendations - https://fxpcm.com/fx/brent-rebound-level-4230-11042016

Once at the beginning of last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a fall in US commercial oil reserves by 4.3 million barrels in the preceding week,
US Department of Energy (EIA) in its report confirmed these data by specifying the reduction in US oil inventories to 4.937 million barrels, oil prices of Brent responded rising 1.3 per barrel to the level of 39.80 for two hours.

OPEC member Kuwait last week expressed confidence in the fact that the largest producers of oil in the world will be able to agree on a freezing of oil production at the upcoming meeting in Doha on 17 April. Venezuela's oil minister also spoke in the same vein, saying that after reaching an agreement to freeze production may appear on the agenda the question of reducing its production volumes.

A combination of several fundamental factors, thus, allow the oil price to correct significantly in the last week.

On Friday, prices continued to rise after the data published by Baker Hughes, according to which the number of drilling rigs operating in the US last week fell by 8 units to 354. This figure is regarded as one of the indicators of activity in the oil sector, and since the beginning of fall in prices he oil fell sharply.

Nevertheless, despite the fact that oil prices have strengthened quite strongly last week (Brent crude oil rose by 3.5 dollars, almost returned to the level of 42.00 dollars per barrel), they will remain under pressure due to the conservation of significant excess supply of oil on the world market.

Despite the decline in crude oil inventories in the US, and their total amounts to almost 530 million barrels, which corresponds to historic highs in the past more than 80 years.
More on Last week, representatives of Saudi Arabia stated that their country may withdraw from the agreement on collective frozen oil production if Iran and other major oil-producing countries will not join him. Iran also continues to increase production in order to achieve level of around 4 million barrels per day.

Thus, the probability of reaching any agreement on limiting production at a meeting on April 17 in Doha is very low. But even if the meeting in Doha will not be delayed, and agreed to freeze production levels will be achieved, it will have only a temporary boost to prices, because excess of the world's oil supply will increase, even though because of the position of Iran.

As always on Wednesday at 14:30 (GMT), there are data from the US Department of Energy commercial stocks of crude oil in the United States last week. Also Wednesday in 02:00 (GMT) will be published preliminary data for March on China import oil, which is the world's largest oil consumer.

China's imports of crude oil in February rose by nearly 25% compared to the same period of the previous year, to 31.8 million tons, representing approximately 8 million barrels a day and is the highest average daily figure for the record.

Therefore, from the data published on Wednesday, will very much depend on the short-term dynamics of oil prices. The preliminary opinion on the US data on oil stocks could be drawn on Tuesday after 20:30 (GMT), when the American Petroleum Institute (API) report on the fall or rise of oil to the US commercial inventories last week.

Source: https://fxpcm.com/fx/brent-rebound-level-4230-11042016
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