Volume was thin yesterday on account of the US markets being closed for Thanksgiving and most of the forex pairs were trading within a tight range. The mixed US data the day before saw some weakness in the Greenback follow through to most of the trading day only for the majors to give up their short lived gains as the Greenback found strength towards the close of the European trading session.
The European session was marked by speeches by ECB officials, Constancio and Draghi however there wasn’t much rhetoric about the ECB’s QE. Markets are however starting to price in a potential announcement from the QE during this coming December’s ECB meeting or during the Q1 of 2015 with sovereign bond purchases seemingly inevitable to avoid.
German data was mixed with unemployment numbers showing improvement but the most watched inflation data on both monthly and yearly continued to show stagnation.
OPEC meeting and the press conference was the main event of the day with Crude oil prices plunging close to 6% to settle the day at multi-year lows of $68 as OPEC decided not to cut production. The Norwegian Krone and the Canadian Dollar was also weighed down by the news.
Fundamentals Recap – November 27, 2014
• Australia CAPEX q/q 0.2% vs. -1.7%
• German preliminary CPI m/m unchanged at 0%l Spanish CPI y/y -0.4%
• Germany unemployment rate 6.6%; unemployment change -14k, better than expected
• ECB President Draghi’s speech
• Gfk German consumer climate rises to 8.7 vs. 8.6
Fundamentals – November 28 2014
• Japan Household spending y/y -4% vs. -4.8%
• Tokyo Core CPI y/y 2.4% vs. 2.3%; National core CPI 2.9% as expected
• Japan unemployment rate 3.5% vs. 3.6%; retail sales 1.4% vs. 1.5%
• Australia ANZ business confidence 31.5 vs. 26.5 previously; private sector credited up 0.6% vs. 0.5% estimates
• German retail sales m/m to rise 1.7% after falling -3.2% last month
• Eurozone flash CPI estimates y/y to be lower at 0.3% vs. 0.4% previously; core CPI to be unchanged at 0.7%
• Eurozone unemployment rate 11.5% estimates
• Italy prelim CPI m/m to decline -0.3%
• Canada GDP m/m to rise 0.4%