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Daily Forex Preview – 04/12


The Greenback continued its gains closing yesterday at highs of 89. The bearish sentiment in the Euro finally overtook EURUSD as the pair started its decline early into the European trading session and supported by mixed but broadly weaker services PMI data.

The Cable however managed to hold its ground on a better than expected services PMI and also boosted by an optimistic GDP revisions for 2014 by UK Chancellor, George Osborne in his autumn statement. The key test for all major Greenback crosses will be Friday’s NFP data.

The US ADP Payroll data released yesterday saw lesser than forecasted jobs being published. Other economic data was mixed with PMI services below estimates while ISM non-manufacturing beating estimates. Nonetheless, the Greenback continued to hold on to its gains.

The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged at 1% as the policy statement was understood to be a bit hawkish on inflation, which helped the Canadian dollar gain some strength.

Today’s economic data includes the ECB minimum bid rate and press conference ahead of the BoE’s monetary policy minute which is expected to be a non event. The ECB’s press conference will be closely watched, especially the opening statements in regards to the QE.

Fundamentals Recap – December 3, 2014

• Australia GDP q/q rises less than expected at 0.3% vs. 0.7% expectations; GDP y/y slows to 2.7% vs. 3.1% estimates

• China non manufacturing PMI softly higher at 53.9; HSBC services PMI at 53 vs. 52.9

• Switzerland GDP q/q beats forecast rising 0.6%; yearly basis rises 1.9% above forecasts

• Spain services PMI falls to 52.7; Italy services PMI rises to 51.8; French services PMI falls to 47.9 German PMI unchanged at 52.1

• Eurozone composite PMI and services PMI lower at 51.1

• UK services PMI beats estimates, rising 58.6

• Eurozone retail sales m/m soft at 0.4%; retail sales y/y at 1.4%

• US ADP employment change 208k vs. 222k estimates

• US Unit labor costs q/q declines -1% and nonfarm productivity y/y soft at 2.3%

• US PMI services lower at 56.2 vs. 56.5; ISM non manufacturing up 59.3

• BoC leaves interest rates unchanged at 1%

Fundamentals – December 4, 2014

• Australia retail sales m/m rises above forecasts at 0.4%

• BoE rate expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%

• ECB minimum bid rate expected to remain unchanged at 0.05%

• ECB press conference

• US initial jobless claims expected at 295k

• Canada Ivey PMI expected to rise to 52.8

Source: https://www.orbex.com/blog
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