The worst is over for oil. The price of $60 per barrel survived and at the end of last week bulls began a corrective uptrend. They managed to overcome and consolidate above $63, which has now become a local support level. The fundamental reason for the growth over $60 was the information that the United States may postpone the planned introduction of duties for Mexican goods. For now, buyers have difficulty overcoming $63.5, while there is a prospect of growth to $65.3 in a lucky case. If the market follows this scenario, the price will return to the mid-term downtrend line.
Market attention will be focused on the next OPEC+ meeting, where the future of the production deal will be discussed. The meeting is likely to take place July 2-4. Over the weekend, the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia said that OPEC countries are close to extend the deal and reduce production in the second half of 2019. The adjustment of production quotas, according to the minister, will depend on Iran and Venezuela export situation. It will likely happen. The Minister of Finance of Russia Anton Siluanov warned that the refusal of OPEC and OPEC + countries to extend the agreement on limiting oil production could lead to a sharp decline in prices to the region of $30-40 per barrel.