Oil is consolidating near the lower border of the upward price channel in which the asset has been trading since the beginning of the month. Local resistance is at $59.5, and support at $58.5. Bulls are trying to break the local downtrend and breakthrough $59.5. If they succeed, then the local goal of the new upward movement will be $61.0, which is located near the upper border of the channel. But if bears manage to lower the price below $ 58.0, then there will be a change of the medium-term trend. Quotes are partly supported by positive Brexit news. It is believed that almost any deal, with the exception of the “hard” Brexit, will support economic growth and oil prices.
In the long run, the situation is less encouraging. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday released an updated forecast in which it again lowered its estimate of global GDP. The IMF worsened the estimate of global economic growth in 2019 down to 3% from previously expected 3.2%, in 2020 - to 3.4% from 3.5%. Since February, the commodity price index, calculated by the IMF, fell by 5.5%, while the price of hydrocarbons fell by 13%. According to the forecast of the fund’s economists, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2019 will be slightly below $60 and it will drop down to $ 55 by 2023.