Gold has been consolidating in a horizontal price channel with borders of $1480 and $1495 since October 11. Uncertainty prevails in the market, new drivers for movement have not yet emerged. It is highly likely that the current sluggish, low-volatility pattern will continue until the market receives new fundamental data.
Traders are waiting for the decision on Brexit. Goldman Sachs believes that there is a 10% probability of a no-deal Brexit. Analysts at other banks also believe that postponing vote on agreement reduces the risk of Britain leaving the EU with no deal. At the same time, weak macroeconomic data from China, the USA and Europe, as well as a possible reduction in the US interest rate are already included in the price.
In the long run, Credit Suisse believes that risks in the global economy and low interest rates will be the factors that would make the gold price grow. In the first half of 2020, bank analysts estimate the value of the precious metal at $1600 per ounce. And according to their research, the asset should return to the level of $1550 before the end of 2019.