Gold has overcome the psychological level of $1,300/oz, bulls even made an attempt to return to the area of $1,310, but it was to no avail. The uptrend began last Friday after breaking through the downward wedge. The figure really worked as a reversal pattern, and $1285-1295 area still remains as a zone of consumer interest. Given the ongoing market instability, gold is likely to continue to strengthen.
The local uptrend associated with the weakening of the US currency. The composite index of the dollar against the 6 major currencies moved into a local downtrend started also last Friday. During this time, the DXY index lost about 0.5%.
Last Wednesday, the IMF released a new forecast - the global economy should grow by only 3.3% this year, compared with the expected 3.5% in January. This is the second decrease of IMF outlook over the past six months. Nevertheless, the market did not react strongly to this information, apparently, the risk of a global recession was also included in the price.
Reuters reports that 8 tons of gold were exported from Venezuela. Earlier it was stated that gold is exported to Turkey, a number of African countries and possibly Russia. Since the beginning of the year, the foreign exchange reserves of the republic have decreased by 30 tons. At this rate, they will end by the end of this year. Central banks of other countries, on the contrary, continue to increase the volume of gold. In February, it increased by 51 tons, this was the maximum level since October 2018. Probably this will remain the main support for the quotes in the medium-term.