Gold tested the mid-term uptrend line and the $1390/oz level at the beginning of the week. After that, the quotes broke the line of a short-term downtrend, in which the metal has been trading since the middle of last week. Bulls rather impulsively returned close to local highs, at the moment price is consolidating near the $1423 level. The current trend is quite likely to continue in the medium term, creating new highs above 1440$, driven by FED policy and other fundamental factors.
The fundamental factors that have impact on gold are quite positive. The NFP data released last Friday showed 224 thousand new jobs in June. This is a lot more than the forecast and the May records of 72 thousand jobs. Despite a 0.1% increase in total unemployment to 3.7%, the market reaction was positive and the US dollar moderately strengthened. The data on NFP also weakened hopes that the Fed might ease its monetary policy aggressively. The interest rate is expected to decrease by 25 basis points as a result of the Fed meeting on July 30-31.
The central bank of Australia raised its gold price forecast for 2019 up to $1,400 per ounce from the previously estimated $1380. Their analysts expect two interest rate cuts, which should support gold: in July and September.