Gold has been trading in a narrow price channel $ 1310-1315 per troy ounce for the last few days. This consolidation followed a growth momentum and looks like a common correction in a bull market. The buyers are quite active at the $1310 level; almost none of our analysts considers a drop below $1300 in the short term.
A recent WSJ survey showed that over 63% of professionals and investors expect gold to rise by the end of the week. They expect a medium-term growth target to be around $1340.
As always, geopolitical risks are the main driver. The US trade war with China, the continuing government shutdown, the slowdown of the global economy are the factors that affect the prices. The strengthening US dollar is a local restraining factor. The USD has been growing since the end of January, and the DXY index has been adding about 1%. However, against the background of the current Fed’s monetary policy aimed at stability, it is best to take this factor as a local one.
In general, the market remains positive, there are practically no preconditions for a significant decline. Nevertheless, one should never be reckless in trading. Do not forget about stop loss and risk management.