For almost a month, oil prices were consolidating in the range of $58.0-61.0. On one hand, the key level of $61.0 was tested by bulls 3 times, forming a reversal figure - triple top. On the other hand, new local lows are formed above the previous ones, which indicates the willingness of buyers to keep the zone of $58.0-59.0. Completion of the current consolidation will decide the medium-term outlook for trading. If bears succeed, then the price of Brent crude oil may reach an annual minimum and fall down to the area of $53.5-55.0. If bulls win and the price consolidates above $62.0, 4-month downtrend line will be broken. The growth range in this case can be expected up to $66.0 and above.
The fundamental background is quite moderate. The commodity market perceives a new round of escalation of the trade war between the USA and China more easily than the previous ones. On September 1, new duties on the import of Chinese goods into the United States for $110 billion a year and return fees for the import of American oil into China entered into force. The likelihood of a quick resolution to the conflict is minimal, but the parties will continue the dialogue at the end of the month. Most analysts accumulate to the fact that the trade war will turn into a long-term confrontation.