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Technical Update: Important JPY Pairs



Even if the USDJPY witnessed a pullback from 104.85-90 resistance-region, a short-term ascending trend-line again triggered the pair's present up-move towards 104.85-90; however, resistance-line of an immediate ascending trend-channel, around 105.10 now, might activate another drag for the quote. If the pair surpasses 105.10, the 105.60 and the 106.00 are likely following upside levels to appear on the chart before one can expect 106.50-55. Moreover, pair's extended advances beyond 106.55 enables it to target July highs of 107.50. On the downside, mentioned TL support of 104.15 might continue limiting the pair's near-term declines, breaking which 103.65 and the channel-support of 103.40 can act as south-side halts. Should the pair drops below 103.40, the 102.80 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its July – August downside, around 102.55-50, may please the sellers.


With the EURJPY's gradual recovery from 112.60, it is presently near to 114.65-70 resistance-confluence, including 100-day SMA, nine-month old descending trend-line and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of January – June drop. In case if the pair manages to surpass 114.70 on a daily closing basis, it can quickly rise to 116.10-15 and to 117.00 round figure during successive up-move. However, pair's pullback from current levels, which is more likely, can result 113.35-30 and the 112.70 before confronting with 112.20-30 horizontal support-zone. Should bears gain control over the prices and drags them below 112.20, chances of the pair's plunge to 110.75 and then to June lows of 109.35 can't be denied.


CADJPY is forming a second shoulder of short-term "Head-and-Shoulder" bearish pattern which indicates the pair's immediate advances till 78.60-65 resistance-zone; though, the quote has to reverse from the same, failing to which negates the formation and can propel the pair to 79.00, 79.40 and 79.65 upside levels. In case if the pair continue rising beyond 79.65, the September high of 80.30 can easily be breached. Alternatively, neckline of the bearish pattern and 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its September month dip, around 77.90-85, becomes important for the pair traders to watch, which if broken could confirm its downward trajectory towards 76.00 with 77.50 and the 76.80 acting as intermediate halts.


The CHFJPY presently trades beyond 100-day SMA for the first time since July 2015; however, the pair's break above three-month old descending trend-line resistance of 105.75 becomes necessary for it to rally towards 106.45-50 and then to 107.00 north-side figures. During the pair's additional upside beyond 107.00, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – June dip, near 108.50-55, can come alive on the chart. Meanwhile, 104.90 and the 104.30 are expected immediate supports for the pair traders to observe, breaking which 104.00 can act as buffer before it could test the ascending trend-line support of 103.25. Should the prices decline below 103.25, the 102.80 and the June lows, around 101.80, might entertain pair Bears.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

Source: https://www.mtrading.com/analytics/technical-analysis/technical-update-important-jpy-pairs
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