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With US inflation disappointing greenback traders, EURUSD managed to clear the 1.1225-30 resistance-confluence, comprising 100-day SMA and descending trend-line; however, the pair failed to extend the previous-day's up-move on Wednesday when the FOMC meeting minutes are scheduled for release. With the RSI already around overbought region, chances of a hawkish statement from minutes to drag the pair to 1.1225-30 region are higher, breaking which it could drop to 1.1200 – 1.1190 area, including 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of December 2015 – May 2016 upside. Should the pair continue declining below 1.1190, a short-term ascending trend-line support of 1.1110 becomes crucial for pair traders to watch, which if broken can drag the pair to July lows of 1.0950, with 50% Fibo level of 1.1070 being intermediate rest. On the upside, 1.1330 and the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.1355 can act as nearby resistances, clearing which the pair can rise to 1.1420 and the 1.1465 before targeting 1.1500 round figure. Given the pair continue trading beyond 1.1500, it becomes capable enough to challenge the May highs of 1.1620.


USDJPY's failure to clear the 100.90 – 101.00 horizontal resistance is likely pulling the prices towards revisiting the 100.30 and the channel support of 99.80; however, its further downside below 99.80 have to clear 99.50 before aiming the Brexit-day lows around 98.80. If the pair continue declining below 98.80, 61.8% FE of its March – June downside, near 97.80, can become its next stop. On the contrary, a clear break above 101.00 could trigger the pair's run-up to 101.50 and the 102.00 – 102.10 zone, including channel resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its June – July upside. Should the pair successfully trades above 102.10, the 102.70 and the 50% Fibo level of 103.15 are likely following resistances to witness on the chart.


Inability to surpass the short-term ascending trend-channel resistance and 61.8% FE of May – July upside dragged the AUDUSD towards testing the channel support at present, around 0.7610, breaking which chances of its pair's drop to 0.7565 and the 0.7530 become brighter. Though, oversold RSI might trigger the pair's pullback around 0.7530, if not, then it could further decline to 0.7490 and the July month lows of 0.7420. Alternatively, pair's bounce from the channel support can quickly surpass 0.7635, 0.7665 and the 0.7700 resistances prior to targeting 0.7720 and the 61.8% FE level of 0.7750. Moreover, pair's additional upside beyond 0.7750 have to beat the channel resistance of 0.7765 in order to flash the 0.7800 round figure mark.


Even if downbeat US inflation numbers propelled the NZDUSD towards a month's high, the pair failed to clear the 0.7320-25 horizontal-resistance, including July highs, on Tuesday. The pair now declines towards short-term ascending trend-line support area of 0.7200 – 0.7195, breaking which it can dip to 0.7165 and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its July to early-August up-move, near 0.7130. Should the pair maintains the south-run below 0.7130, it can mark 0.7085 and the 0.7065 on the chart. Meanwhile, 0.7270 and the 0.7300 are likely immediate resistances that the pair needs to confront before seeing the 0.7320-25 resistance, which if broken can extend its northward trajectory towards 61.8% FE level of 0.7385. Additionally, the pair's sustained trading above 0.7385 enables it to show 0.7450 to the pair traders.

Cheers And Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

Source: https://www.mtrading.com/analytics/technical-analysis/technical-outlook-eurusd-usdjpy-audusd-and-nzdusd
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