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Technical Check: Important JPY Pairs



Having bounced from 61.8% FE of its February month decline, the GBPJPY presently trades around the fortnightly high; however, 158.50, followed by the 50-day SMA level of 159.25 and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of 159.50, are likely nearby resistances that could hold its further upside captive. Should the pair manages to clear 159.50 on a closing basis, it becomes capable enough of targeting 161.80 and the 162.50 mark, encompassing 38.2% Fibo, clearing which chances of its run-up to 164.15-20 zone can't be denied. On the downside, a close below 157.00 indicates the pair's weakness and could drag the prices to 155.70 prior to revisiting the February lows of 154.70. Given the pair's further decline below 154.70, it can drop to 153.80, which if broken opens the door for its plunge towards 151.65-70 re-test, including the present month lows and 61.8% FE level.


Even if the CADJPY surpassed ten month old descending trend-line on Wednesday, 87.40-50 horizontal resistance-zone, comprising of 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its June 2015 – January 2016 downside, also including March highs, becomes an important region for the pair to clear in order to claim the rise towards 200-day SMA level of 88.85 now. If the pair maintains its upward trajectory beyond 88.85, also clears the 89.00, the 50% Fibo level of 90.00 psychological magnet becomes next resistance for the pair traders to watch. Alternatively, pair's reversal from present levels can print 86.30-25 and the 85.70 supports before revisiting the 84.70-75 multiple support-zone. Given the bears' control over the pair drags it below 84.70, the 84.00 becomes a small obstacle for prices to break prior to targeting the 82.90 and the short-term upward slanting trend-line, at 82.20 now.


AUDJPY's reversal from 80.60 presently propels it towards 200-day SMA level of 86.00; though, 86.25-50 broad horizontal resistance might restrict its further upside, failing to which can strengthen the pair further towards 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of its May 2015 – February 2016 downside, near 87.40, and then to 88.00 mark. If the pair keeps rising beyond 88.00, the 89.10-15 may act as intermediate resistance during its rally towards 90.65-70. Meanwhile, 38.2% Fibo level of 85.00 can offer nearby support to the pair, breaking which 84.50, 84.00 and the 83.70 are likely follow-on supports that the pair could test. Moreover, pair's sustained downtrend below 83.70 can drag the prices to 82.70 and the 82.00 supports.


Failure to surpass the 77.00 seems dragging the NZDJPY prices towards 75.70 immediate support, breaking which 75.00 and the 74.40 may hold its extended downside. However, pair's drop below 74.40 makes it weaker enough to plunge towards 73.00 round figure mark, which if broken can confirm its dip to August 2015 lows around 72.00. Should the pair reverses from present levels, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – August 2015 downside, near 76.85, followed by the 100-day SMA level of 77.50, are likely strong resistances that it needs to confront. If the pair rises beyond 77.50, it the 78.50-60 area, including a year-long trend-line resistance and 200-day SMA, could hold its further north-run captive. Though, pair's close above 78.60 enables it to challenge the 80.00 psychological magnet.

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Source: https://www.mtrading.com/analytics/technical-analysis/technical-check-important-jpy-pairs-2
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